Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
Denmark’s narrow 1:0 win in Copenhagen came down more to Portugal’s wastefulness and tactical rigidity than to any attacking brilliance from the home side. Now, with the return leg set in Lisbon, the hosts are expected to bring much more attacking intensity, while the Danes will likely be pinned back for long spells defending their slender advantage.
Portugal
Portugal’s loss in Denmark marked their third consecutive away match without a win, a streak that includes a 1:1 draw with Croatia, where they also struggled to generate clear chances. In Copenhagen, Portugal posted just 0.51 xG and two shots on target — a weak return given their squad quality. Roberto Martínez again stuck with Cristiano Ronaldo up front for the full 90 minutes, despite a lack of threat, and substitutions failed to ignite the attack.
Denmark
Denmark, for their part, squandered a host of chances in the first half. Christian Eriksen missed a penalty, and the team produced 1.89 xG before the break, but only scored once from nine shots on target — through Rasmus Højlund. That level of dominance is unlikely to repeat itself in Lisbon, where chances will be fewer and defending will take priority. The Danes had four matches with under 2.5 goals in the Nations League group stage and generally look more comfortable playing reactive football.
Portugal vs Denmark Prediction
There’s little to suggest a drastic change in approach from either side in the return leg. Portugal will push harder at home, but Denmark will be disciplined, pragmatic, and ready to soak up pressure. With both teams showing flaws in the final third and struggling for clinical edge, this could again be a low-scoring encounter.
