Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Copa Libertadores match.
In the first leg of the round of 16, Peñarol claimed a narrow 1:0 win, stretching their unbeaten run in the competition to six matches. Racing Club must at least match that result, but even then, a quarter-final spot is not guaranteed.
Racing Club
Racing Club offered nothing of note in Montevideo. They had nine attempts but not a single effort counted as a shot on target — not even the frame of the goal was troubled. An expected goals tally of just 0.23 summed it up. Racing’s struggles are mirrored in the Argentine Clausura, where they’ve managed just one win and four points from five rounds. On the positive side, the team did find the net in four of those five matches. Still, five of their last eight games this summer finished under 2.5 goals.
Peñarol
Uruguay’s most successful club scored the only goal of the first leg with an xG of 1.11, though their accuracy also left plenty to be desired — three shots on target from 13 attempts. Crucially, they still carved out two big chances. Their six-game unbeaten streak in the Libertadores was built entirely at home, until Boston River snapped it with a 2:1 defeat. Away from Montevideo, Peñarol remain a tough nut to crack: just three defeats in their last ten on the road, all by a single-goal margin.
Racing Club vs Peñarol Prediction
Racing Club have work to do, but Peñarol’s defensive resilience away from home gives them a strong cushion. The visitors are unlikely to lose by more than a goal.
