Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
A 3:0 defeat to Arsenal at the Emirates has left Real Madrid with a mountain to climb in their bid to reach the Champions League semi-finals. At the Santiago Bernabéu, the hosts will be without the suspended Eduardo Camavinga, though Aurélien Tchouaméni is set to return to the squad. With Aurélien Tchouaméni back in the starting line-up, the attacking unit is expected to commit even less to defensive duties, instead focusing on carving out opportunities in the final third.
Real Madrid
Before narrowly beating Deportivo Alavés (1:0), Real Madrid had suffered three straight defeats, conceding nine goals across those outings. In London, Real Madrid conceded 1.61 from xGA and allowed 11 shots on target – without Thibaut Courtois in goal, the result might have been even more punishing. At the Bernabéu, Total Over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of the last 11 matches, and with Kylian Mbappé and company likely to press from the first whistle, another match with multiple goals looks highly probable.
Arsenal
From the 1:1 draw against Brentford on Saturday, it’s clear that Arsenal have shifted their full attention to the Champions League. The team are currently on a nine-game unbeaten run, scoring 18 goals in that span. In Madrid, it's expected that Arsenal will employ a deep defensive setup, allowing Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to exploit the wide areas on the break – an effective tactic that has helped the team maintain favourable leads throughout the season.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction
However, Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last three matches away from home, which suggests Real Madrid will have their chances, especially with the backing of the home crowd. Given the attacking potential on both sides and recent trends, we’re backing Total Over in the goals market – this line could be reached as early as the first half, depending on the game’s tempo.
