Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the La Liga match.
Villarreal have suffered just one defeat this season (to Barcelona) and have unexpectedly climbed to third place in the table. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have not secured a victory in their last two matches. It seems that in one of the highlight matches of this round, the favourite is not as clear-cut as it might seem.
Real Madrid
Carlo Ancelotti is once again dealing with a string of injuries. Currently sidelined is their key goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, and their star player Kylian Mbappe is only just beginning to regain form after an injury. However, this doesn't affect the team's pragmatic style of play. They rank second in goals conceded (6) against 6.5 xGA. At the same time, they have yet to find their rhythm in attack, having created only 9.2 xG from open play across eight rounds. Notably, Real Madrid have recorded a total under 3.5 in six matches this season.
Villarreal
In contrast, Villarreal have been collecting points primarily thanks to their effective attack, scoring 17 goals with an xG of 15.2. However, they face significant defensive issues, conceding 15 goals against an xGA of 12. Barcelona capitalised on this weakness, scoring five in one match. Additionally, against top-five teams, Villarreal's scoring significantly drops, with no more than two goals.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction
The head-to-head history between these teams often shows a high-scoring affair, yet several factors suggest otherwise this time. Firstly, Real Madrid are not in their best form—they couldn't even score against Lille in the Champions League. Carlo Ancelotti, aware of this, will likely emphasise defence. Secondly, Marcelino García will surely aim to avoid a repeat of the result against Barcelona and will make certain adjustments, meaning Villarreal will not recklessly charge forward.
