Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the La Liga match.
Real Oviedo
The trip to Villarreal exposed their defensive weaknesses: they allowed 2.61 xGA, with only Sevilla (2.68) and Girona (3.25) worse in the opening round. Before conceding, Oviedo wasted key opportunities to stay in the game — Salomón Rondón missed a penalty, and goalkeeper Alberto Reina received two yellow cards in the space of nine minutes. With Reina suspended, coach Veljko Paunović is likely to turn to veteran Santi Cazorla, but that will inevitably slow their attacking tempo.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid also have some absentees at the start of the campaign, including Jude Bellingham and Endrick Felipe. Xabi Alonso is still working out the balance between Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé in the forward line. At the Bernabéu against Osasuna (1:0), it was Mbappé who decided the game, winning and converting a penalty. The team generated 1.43 xG while restricting their opponents to just 0.20 xG. Against a newly promoted side, Real Madrid are expected to be even more aggressive.
Real Oviedo vs Real Madrid Prediction
Real Oviedo’s defence looks far from ready to cope with such a demanding opening schedule, and Real Madrid should have little trouble here. Dropping points before the September international break is not an option for the Madrid side.
