Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Copa del Rey match.
Both Real Sociedad and Real Madrid secured clean-sheet victories in La Liga last Sunday, setting the stage for a cautious first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final. We expect Real Sociedad to prioritise defensive solidity, while Real Madrid will aim to manage the tie efficiently, securing their place in the final at the Bernabéu in the return leg.
Real Sociedad
Against Leganés (3:0), Arsen Zakharyan opened his scoring for Real Sociedad this season and is likely to feature in this cup match. Despite a convincing win over an underdog, Real Madrid generated only 0.75 xG from five shots on target, highlighting their struggles with long-range efforts against well-organised defences. Meanwhile, Real Sociedad have conceded just 23 goals in 25 league matches—only three clubs boast a better defensive record.
Real Madrid
In previous rounds of the Copa del Rey, Real Madrid advanced past Celta Vigo (5:2 AET) and Leganés (3:2) by relying on individual brilliance, a tactic that may prove insufficient against a stronger opponent. Carlo Ancelotti is likely to field his strongest XI after their 2:0 victory over Girona, during which Real Madrid’s pressing dipped slightly in the absence of Jude Bellingham, although their opponents managed only 0.45 xGA. Consequently, Real Madrid will need to perform with caution in San Sebastián.
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction
Since January 2023, these sides have seen Under 2.5 Goals in four of their five head-to-head matches, including the 2:0 win for Real Madrid in September. With both teams fatigued by a congested schedule, we believe neither will overextend themselves on Wednesday.
