Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Hamburg match.
Two compatriots from Argentina face off in the first round of the ATP 500 event in Hamburg: eighth seed Sebastian Baez and world No. 52 Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The winner will go on to meet another Argentine in the next round.
Sebastian Baez Camilo
The head-to-head record between the two stands at 3-0 in favour of Sebastian Baez. While his current ATP ranking (No. 36) is only slightly higher than his opponent’s, he has prevailed in each of their three previous encounters. All of those matches were played this year on South American clay—conditions familiar and favourable to both players. Their most recent clash came in Santiago, Chile, in late February and early March. That semi-final lasted 1 hour and 47 minutes and went the distance (6:1, 3:6, 6:2).
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Each of their previous meetings took place on clay. Even when the contests stretched to three sets, the total number of games never exceeded 23—suggesting that sets were often one-sided. In Madrid, neither player enjoyed a deep run. Sebastian Baez was eliminated in the round of 1/32, losing to Damir Dzumhur (6:1, 1:6, 2:6), while Camilo Ugo Carabelli was eliminated in the round of 1/64 to Christopher O’Connell (3:6, 4:6).
Sebastian Baez Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction
With the pattern from previous matchups in mind, even a three-set match is unlikely to push the total game count beyond the mark. We expect the contest to conclude within 23 games.
