Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Borussia Dortmund’s emphatic 6:0 victory over Union Berlin in their last outing will serve as a major confidence booster ahead of their trip to face St. Pauli. The Hamburg underdogs have a comfortable cushion above the relegation zone, but a three-match losing streak does little to inspire confidence.
St. Pauli
In the last three weeks, only St. Pauli, Holstein Kiel, and Werder Bremen have failed to collect a single point in the Bundesliga. Additionally, St. Pauli have the second-worst xG in this period (1.81). Their latest defeat against Mainz (0:2) saw their performance dip after Lars Ritzka’s injury, conceding twice in the final 30 minutes. At home, the newly promoted side have managed just seven goals in 11 matches—the worst record in the division—and picked up only nine points, placing them second from bottom in the home table.
Borussia Dortmund
With a Champions League last-16 tie against Lille on the horizon, Borussia Dortmund will want to close the seven-point gap to the Bundesliga top four before shifting focus to Europe. Against Union Berlin, Serhou Guirassy scored four goals—something only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Erling Haaland have done in the past decade for Dortmund. Under Niko Kovač, Borussia Dortmund have generated the highest xG in the league (9.22), proving that the managerial change has revitalised the squad.
St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Back in October, St. Pauli nearly snatched a draw in Dortmund, only for Serhou Guirassy to secure a late, well-deserved victory (2:1, 3.46–0.58 in xG). Borussia Dortmund’s superior finishing and squad depth should make the difference in Hamburg once again.
