Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Last season both clubs hit their objectives: St. Pauli secured survival in the top flight, while Borussia Dortmund sealed a Champions League return. But does that mean the visitors are guaranteed to leave Hamburg with three points? Not necessarily — though the record speaks in their favour.
St. Pauli
The promoted side were steady in 2024/25, hovering just above the relegation play-off zone without slipping too often. They collected their first point only in round four — defeats to Heidenheim (0:2), Union Berlin (0:1) and Augsburg (1:3) highlighted early struggles, with Leipzig the first stronger side to stumble (0:0). The issue was clear: poor finishing. This pre-season suggests that problem may be easing, with goals coming more freely: 2:0 against Nice and 2:2 with Coventry City show signs of improvement.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund also looked sharp in attack during their summer build-up, scoring three against Lille and one versus Juventus. But they conceded twice in both, with defensive depth hit by injuries to Nico Schlotterbeck (long-term) and Niklas Süle. New signing Yan Couto was brought in for the right flank, but even he limped off in the Juventus game — though he did reappear in the DFB-Pokal first round. That Cup tie against third-tier Rot-Weiss (1:0) was played with a near full-strength XI but lacked urgency: Dortmund managed just four shots on target and created no clear chances.
St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
History is firmly with Borussia Dortmund: five wins from five against St. Pauli, with four of those games producing over 2.5 goals. St. Pauli will fight hard at home, but Dortmund’s superior quality should prevail. With both sides finding the net regularly in recent weeks and the visitors’ defence far from watertight, goals are expected alongside a result in Borussia Dortmund’s favour.
