Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas opens his Madrid campaign with a clear goal of making a deep run, particularly after an early elimination in last year’s edition. This time, the Greek enters the tournament without the physical fatigue that hampered him twelve months ago. Jan-Lennard Struff, meanwhile, has finally broken an eight-match losing streak, but his current form remains poor — and against a player of Stefanos Tsitsipas’s calibre, his prospects look bleak.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas boasts a strong clay-court pedigree and has already reached the third round twice this season. While concerns were raised about his fitness — especially after retiring from a match due to a back issue — his commitment to playing in Madrid indicates he's ready. With Carlos Alcaraz withdrawing from the tournament, Tsitsipas has emerged as one of the leading contenders for the title. In 2025, his first-serve win percentage on clay has not dipped below 67%, and he looked sharp at the Barcelona Open. He dispatched Reilly Opelka in just 16 games over one hour and ten minutes, and although he was pushed in the opening set by Sebastian Korda (7:6, 6:4), he closed out the match in 90 minutes.
Jan-Lennard Struff
Jan-Lennard Struff ended his losing streak with a win over Botic van de Zandschulp, but the performance left plenty to be desired. He recorded only 13 winners alongside 23 unforced errors, even in victory. His first-serve percentage was a modest 58%, and he won just 68% of points behind it. In 2025, the German took part in two clay-court events, being eliminated at the first hurdle in both — including a heavy defeat in Monte Carlo to Valentin Vacherot, ranked 223rd in the world (2:6, 1:6).
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction
The German's inconsistent form remains a major concern. Facing Stefanos Tsitsipas and his powerful, consistent baseline game, Jan-Lennard Struff is unlikely to match the pace. His movement along the baseline is not particularly fluid, and his backhand continues to be a vulnerability. Additionally, he often appears to conserve energy and rush through points, which limits his effectiveness in extended rallies. Two sets should be sufficient for Stefanos Tsitsipas to secure progression.
