Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
In just under a month, Gary Rowett has transformed Oxford United from hopeless underdogs into mid-table contenders in the Championship. Mark Robins, in three weeks, hasn't managed to impact Stoke City as significantly, so a home game offers little cause for euphoria.
Stoke City
Stoke City have celebrated success just once in their last seven matches, during a period when Ryan Shawcross was interim manager — they defeated Sunderland (1:0). This appears to have been an emotional release following the dismissal of Narcís Pèlach. However, the fresh start effect faded in Mark Robins' first match, as on 4 January, Stoke couldn't overcome the bottom-placed Plymouth Argyle (0:0) at home. It's worth highlighting that Stoke City struggle in attack, evident from their league standing (26 goals in 28 matches, placing them 22nd), and their winter games (just 7 goals in 10). Where will the victories come from?
Oxford United
Oxford have remained unbeaten in the league since 26 December, precisely after Gary Rowett took charge. Is this the result of that new manager bounce, or has the 50-year-old effectively rebuilt the team? Notably, in the majority of these seven matches (five wins and two draws), Oxford United have outscored their expected goals significantly (12 goals to 6.29 xG), demonstrating almost double the efficiency.
Stoke City vs Oxford United Prediction
Stoke City experienced a period between December and January with three matches where they conceded no goals, so a goalless draw is possible. We still anticipate a victory for the visitors, but for safety's sake, we'll opt for the double chance.
