Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
St. Pauli have made an excellent start to the Bundesliga season: after three rounds they sit fourth. Stuttgart will try to halt them at St. Pauli’s home ground, yet there are serious questions about Stuttgart themselves.
Stuttgart
Those questions grew after Matchday 3, when Stuttgart let a narrow lead slip after the 80th minute. They did not just let it slip; they conceded three times to Freiburg (1:3). Yes, Stuttgart were away from home, and it was their second defeat on their travels. That is not catastrophic: many rivals fade on the road as well, but if the club intend to return to the UEFA Champions League, they cannot allow this. Their first outing of the season at the Gottlieb-Daimler-Stadion ended well — a 1:0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach — but the squad allowed far too much. The visitors took 15 shots, created two goal-scoring chances and produced 1.82 xG.
St. Pauli
If St. Pauli post similar numbers, they can certainly capitalise. Recall the finale in Dortmund against Borussia Dortmund (3:3), when St. Pauli came back from two goals down by exploiting a numerical advantage. To beat Hamburger 2:0 in the derby, they needed 17 attempts, six on target, two goal-scoring chances and 1.44 xG. Those statistics are similar to Borussia Mönchengladbach’s against Stuttgart. And on Matchday 3, St. Pauli earned a come-from-behind victory over Augsburg (2:1).
Stuttgart vs St. Pauli Prediction
Therefore we strongly doubt an away win. Any small lapse and the hosts are likely to be punished, so we are taking the safety of +1 on the handicap for St. Pauli.
