Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
Just as you begin to believe in Sunderland's invincibility, they go ahead and lose to an underdog. And just when you're about to be disappointed in Middlesbrough, they surprise you even more. Who will impress this time?
Sunderland
A slip-up for Sunderland was somewhat expected, but definitely not in their match against Plymouth Argyle (2:3), who had been conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Sunderland's potent attack should have had a field day against their defence. In essence, it played out that way: the team scored twice, taking 17 shots, 6 of which were on target. The problem lay in their own defence, which allowed almost the same: 13 (6) shots and an xG of 1.76—just a hundredth larger. Crucially, Plymouth Argyle scored an extra goal in the 93rd minute. Blame falls on everyone: the goalkeeper, who parried the ball straight to an opponent, and the sluggish defenders, who were further away than their counterparts.
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough top the list of squandered scoring opportunities. No other club has a bigger gap between expected goals and actual goals: an xG of 10.16 has produced only six goals. In the last round, the story repeated itself. The team drew 1-1 with bottom-table Preston North End . Despite all their efforts, 16 (6) shots and an xG of 1.64 amounted to just one goal. On the other hand, Preston North End secured a point with only 5(1) shots and 0.44 xG. If Middlesbrough continue in this style, they’ll struggle against Sunderland, who have scored almost three more goals than expected.
Sunderland vs Middlesbrough Prediction
In three of the last four meetings between these clubs, the match saw the total under 2.5. While that's possible, we see a higher-scoring game here. It's tricky to predict the exact goal count, but we are confident Sunderland will take their chances. They have won both of their home games this season with a combined score of 5-0. Therefore, we are backing Sunderland to win, and the odds are favourable.
