Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NHL match.
The Pittsburgh Penguins’ late-season push has unexpectedly reignited their playoff hopes, injecting fresh drama into the Eastern Conference race. On paper, a symbolic playoff surge from the Penguins would make for a neat narrative, but next on the schedule is a trip to the Tampa Bay Lightning and a showdown with Andrei Vasilevskiy — a near-impossible challenge on home ice.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are one of just three Eastern Conference teams with 20+ regulation wins on home ice, trailing only the Carolina Hurricanes in that category. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the cornerstone of that dominance. Since 1 February, he’s posted a 93.4% save percentage, a 1.94 GAA and five shutouts. That kind of form means the skaters in front of him don’t need to do anything heroic — just play with structure and the results take care of themselves. The Lightning’s goal differential since the start of February is a healthy +16.
Pittsburgh Penguins
As for the Penguins, if you strip away the sentimentality, their recent run is hanging by a thread. Their PDO for March sits at a bloated 107.1 — a classic indicator of puck luck, both in shooting percentage and goaltending. And while fortune favours the brave, it rarely sticks. The Penguins are being outplayed at even strength, generating just 43.4% xGF over that same stretch. In short, they’re giving up more chances than they create — not a formula that tends to hold up.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction
The Tampa Bay Lightning took both games in Pennsylvania, and when the first went to overtime (3:2), they dominated in both clear scoring chances (16-7) and shots (35-19). Too much has to go right for the Pittsburgh Penguins to get any points – a confident victory for the home side is far more likely.
