Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry heads into this match on the back of two consecutive disappointing losses, having been eliminated from the previous tournament in Barcelona at the first hurdle. In contrast, Hamad Medjedovic has demonstrated clear progress and looked solid during the early stages of the clay-court season. The only previous meeting between these two saw the Argentine emerge victorious in three sets (5:7, 6:2, 6:2) in Provence two years ago, but the Serbian arrives in Madrid in notably better form.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
The Argentine has traditionally performed well on clay, but his current level is a major concern. In recent defeats to Alejandro Davidóvich Fókina and Alex de Minaur, he failed to offer any real resistance. Particularly alarming was his performance against the Australian, where he managed to win just 23% of return points and failed to generate a single break point — a worrying statistic for a player known for his strength in long rallies. His first serve has also been unreliable, landing just 55% of first serves across four clay-court matches this season.
Hamad Medjedovic
Hamad Medjedovic has won four of his six matches on clay this season and has twice reached the second round at ATP-level events. Most recently, he pushed world No.15 Casper Ruud in Barcelona (5:7, 5:7), hitting 37 winners and winning 63% of points on his first serve (compared to 58% for the Norwegian). Although he made 44 unforced errors, these reflect his high-risk, attacking style of play. Over his last six matches on clay, Medjedovic has impressed, averaging five aces per outing.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Hamad Medjedovic Prediction
At present, Hamad Medjedovic looks the more convincing of the two: he brings greater aggression and tactical variety, while Tomas Etcheverry has struggled even to hold serve. The Argentine has been eliminated from both spring tournaments without posing a threat, whereas the Serbian has already shown he can compete with top-level opposition. Medjedovic is well-positioned to avenge his 2023 loss to Etcheverry and book his place in the second round in Madrid.
