Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Roland Garros match.
Carlos Alcaraz is in Paris to defend his crown and remains the outright favourite to lift the trophy again. But it hasn't been entirely smooth sailing so far. The Spaniard has dropped a set in each of his matches — against Damir Dzumhur, Fabian Marozsan, and Ben Shelton — raising questions about his form despite his impressive clay record this season. Tommy Paul, meanwhile, is enjoying a career-best run in 2025. A quarter-finalist in Melbourne and now in Paris, he’s playing with freedom and belief.
Tommy Paul
The American has made major strides on clay this year, posting a 12-3 record and reaching the semi-finals in Rome. He’s also developed a knack for fighting through adversity — nine of those 12 wins came in matches where he dropped a set. Even at Roland Garros, Paul has been made to work, splitting sets in two of his four matches. His latest win over Alexei Popyrin (No.25) (6:3, 6:3, 6:3) was clinical, but it’s his resilience in previous rounds that stands out. Crucially, Paul has pushed top-ranked opponents regularly — in his last six Slam defeats, he’s taken at least a set in every match.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz may be the world No.2 with a staggering 19-1 record on clay in 2025, but he's looked vulnerable in Paris. Each of his three matches has gone four sets, and he hasn’t yet found that dominant rhythm that defined his 2023 title run. Historically, even when victorious at Roland Garros, the Spaniard has tended to drop sets — in six of his last ten matches here. Against Paul, Alcaraz holds a 4-2 edge in the head-to-head, but notably, the American has taken at least one set in four of those meetings.
Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Alcaraz remains the better player on paper, but Paul’s current form, clay improvements and track record of testing the very best make this matchup anything but straightforward. With the Spaniard yet to win in straight sets this fortnight, there’s every reason to believe Paul will once again make it a contest.
