Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Indian Wells Masters match.
Daniil Medvedev faces Tommy Paul at Indian Wells for the second consecutive year. Last season, the Russian achieved victory, but the match was challenging. Currently, Medvedev is striving to return to his previous level, while Paul has found his form and is producing excellent results.
Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul has started 2025 in strong fashion, winning 9 of his last 11 matches on hard courts. The American claimed three titles in 2024, refining his game with more aggressive net play and improved shot selection. Against Cameron Norrie (6:3, 7:5) in the previous round, Paul controlled much of the match but allowed his opponent three break-back opportunities, which could be costly against Medvedev. While his 1-3 head-to-head record against the Russian is concerning, his only win came on clay in Rome.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev has made at least the quarter-finals in his last three tournaments, showing glimpses of his best form. However, Indian Wells' slow hard courts limit his attacking advantages, making matches more challenging for him. The biggest concern for the world No. 4 is his record against top-20 opponents, with 13 losses in his last 18 such matches. On the plus side, Medvedev had a walkover win in the third round, playing just 12 minutes before Alex Michelsen retired, meaning he will be physically fresh.
Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Medvedev enters as the favourite, but Paul's current form and ability to extend rallies will make this a tough battle. Expect a tight contest that exceeds 20.5 total games, regardless of the winner.
