Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Rio de Janeiro match.
Chilean qualifier Tomás Barrios Vera faces second seed Lorenzo Musetti in the first round of the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro. Given the huge gap in rankings and experience, the odds heavily favour Musetti, and for good reason.
Tomás Barrios Vera
Barrios Vera has played nine matches in 2025, but only one was at ATP level—the rest were in qualifying rounds, ITF events, and Challenger tournaments. His highest-ranked opponent beaten this year was World No.196, showing the limited quality of his victories. His only match against a top-100 player ended in a straight-sets defeat to Zizou Bergs (No.60).
Lorenzo Musetti
The Italian No.17 is significantly ahead in terms of ranking and experience. Barrios Vera has not faced a top-20 opponent since last season, and when he did, he suffered a heavy defeat to Cameron Norrie (1:6, 1:6) in Rio 2024. Musetti did not play in last year's edition, meaning a deep run here could boost his ranking points.
Tomás Barrios Vera vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
Musetti hasn’t played a sub-top-100 opponent since July 2024, when he comfortably beat Marco Trungelliti (6:4, 6:3) in Umag. This match should follow a similar pattern, with the Italian dominating the Chilean qualifier. Expect a comfortable victory.
