Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the English Premier League match.
The first North London derby of the season sees both teams arriving with significantly weakened squads, having lost key players. It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff address these challenges. Regardless, this is the match of the week.
Arsenal
After their strong start, where Arsenal secured two clean-sheet wins, the news emerging from their side has been increasingly discouraging. In terms of results, they dropped points in their home fixture against Brighton (1:1), despite creating a decent 2.14 xG. Additionally, they lost a crucial midfielder, Declan Rice, who received a second yellow card for simulation. Besides Rice, Arsenal will also be without another midfielder, Mikel Merino, who got injured before even making his debut for the new club. Moreover, captain Martin Ødegaard appears to have sustained a serious ankle injury while playing for the Norway national team. There are also doubts about the participation of defender Riccardo Calafiori, who picked up an injury on international duty. The main question is: how will Arsenal replace Ødegaard? They lack a similar creative playmaker, and without him, they will have to rely primarily on winger runs and crosses.
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham have not suffered as severely from injuries. The only notably weakened position is the centre of attack. Richarlison de Andrade and Dominic Solanke are injured, with the latter having a chance to recover in time for the derby. However, how willing is Ange Postecoglou to risk Solanke’s health? If Solanke does not start, either Dejan Kulusevski, who struggled against Newcastle, or Son Heung-min, who is not a natural centre-forward, will take his place, impacting the team’s scoring potential. Even against Newcastle, Tottenham managed over 20 shots but produced only 1.26 xG.
Arsenal — Tottenham Hotspur Prediction
The last North London derby on 28 April this year ended with an away victory for Arsenal (3:2). However, following that match, none of Arsenal’s six subsequent Premier League games saw more than three goals, and for Tottenham, only two of their last eight matches featured more than three goals. Considering the attacking losses, betting on total under seems prudent. The teams are unlikely to score more than three goals, and possibly even fewer.
