Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Coupe de France match.
This upcoming match is crucial for Toulouse, as their hopes of qualifying for European competitions through Ligue 1 have all but faded. Meanwhile, Guingamp are struggling with defensive issues, as highlighted by their recent defeat to Paris FC (0:1).
Toulouse
A draw against OGC Nice (1:1), a top-five side, has left Toulouse seven points adrift of the league’s top six. Since selling key striker Thijs Dallinga to Bologna in the summer, they have shifted their focus to defensive solidity—conceding just 22 goals in 20 matches, the fourth-best record in Ligue 1. In the Coupe de France, Toulouse have successfully navigated their fixtures while rotating the squad. They eliminated Hauts Lyonnais (1:0 after penalties, with a dominant 14-3 in shots) and Laval (2:1, generating 2.29 xG).
Guingamp
Guingamp remain in contention for promotion to Ligue 1, but their weekend defeat has increased their gap to the top two to five points. Defensively, they have conceded 25 goals in 21 Ligue 2 matches—only seven teams have a better record. However, their cup run has not tested them against strong opposition, and injuries to five key players severely limit their tactical flexibility.
Toulouse vs Guingamp Prediction
Toulouse have not lost to Guingamp since April 2017, winning four of their last eight meetings. The gap in quality is evident, and with home advantage, the Ligue 1 side should book their place in the quarter-finals.
