Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Montreal match.
Victoria Mboko has emerged as the standout performer at the WTA 1000 hard-court event in Montreal, with the young Canadian already securing a place in the semi-finals. For Elena Rybakina, this marks a second consecutive appearance in the last four at this tournament, having been eliminated at this stage in 2023 following a defeat to Liudmila Samsonova. The home favourite now faces one of the most powerful servers on tour in a battle for a spot in the final.
Victoria Mboko
Victoria Mboko is enjoying an impressive season, with 17 wins from 19 matches on hard courts. In 2025, she has claimed victory in 81% of her matches against higher-ranked opponents and is poised to break into the top 50 following this tournament. A win over Elena Rybakina could move her even closer to the top 30. So far in Montreal, Victoria has dropped just one set — to Marie Bouzkova, whom she also bageled — while Coco Gauff, Sofia Kenin, and Lucia Peyre Maneyro offered little resistance. The Canadian has posted strong serving statistics this week, with a 65% first-serve percentage and a 71% success rate on points behind her first delivery, tallying 37 aces across five matches.
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina is currently ranked 12th and is on the verge of returning to the top 10. However, she has lost all three of her hard-court semi-finals this season. Despite holding a solid 72% win rate on the surface (21 wins, 8 losses), she has struggled to translate deep runs into titles. Although Elena recently defeated Victoria Mboko at the WTA 500 event in Washington (6:3, 7:5), the added pressure of facing a resurgent opponent on home soil could work against her. Furthermore, the Kazakhstani has shown inconsistency on serve, landing just 55% of her first serves.
Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina Prediction
Victoria Mboko is playing with exceptional confidence and momentum at her home event. While Elena Rybakina is the nominal favourite, her mixed record in hard-court semi-finals and the advantage of local conditions for Mboko could swing the outcome. The Canadian looks well-placed to cover a comfortable +4.5 game handicap.
