Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NHL match.
The matchup between the Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens evokes memories of the 2010 postseason. Back then, the Capitals entered as the top seed in the Eastern Conference, while the Canadiens just scraped into the playoffs—yet they pulled off a major upset in a seven-game series. Could we see another twist this time? It seems unlikely.
Washington Capitals
There’s a significant difference between the current Capitals squad and the one from 15 years ago, primarily in terms of mindset. Since then, they’ve lifted the Stanley Cup and shed the psychological burden that once held them back. This version of the team is built around experienced veterans like Alexander Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Nicklas Backstrom, all of whom are battle-tested and composed under playoff pressure. On paper, the Capitals hold a clear advantage. They finished the regular season second in goals per game (3.49), led the league in shooting percentage (12.6%), and were top five in penalty killing at 82%.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens secured their playoff spot with a strong post-Four Nations Tournament run, going 15-5-6. That surge was largely powered by goaltenders Samuel Montembeault and Jakub Dobes, who delivered standout performances when it mattered most. However, questions remain about the team’s overall quality. During that same stretch, they ranked just 27th in 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage (46.57%), suggesting they allowed considerably more scoring chances than they created. Defensive vulnerabilities persist (2.85 xGA), although recent goaltending form has helped mask those issues. To have any hope of progressing, they’ll need a miracle performance reminiscent of Jaroslav Halak in 2010—something that’s rarely replicable.
Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction
For many of the younger players on the Montreal Canadiens squad, this will be their first exposure to playoff hockey, and even managing to win a single game would be a respectable showing. The Washington Capitals are expected to assert their dominance early in the series. They managed to do just that in two of their three meetings this season, winning both times by two goals or more.
