Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the English Premier League match.
West Ham will host the champions, but just three days prior, they played a tough match against Bournemouth (1:0) with almost their full strength squad. Unlike Manchester City, who had a rest. Is victory an impossible mission?
West Ham
Yes, that’s how the draw unfolded. There was no time for relaxation. They won a match where they seemed to yield but managed to score in the 88th minute thanks to captain Jarrod Bowen. You might argue that West Ham have a solid defence, having kept a clean sheet against Crystal Palace as well (2:0). However, they managed only 2 shots on target from 14 attempts, with two hitting the woodwork, while their opponents had 1.35 xG. Do you think Manchester City will be as forgiving? Even Aston Villa, with a reasonably well-organised attack, managed to put two deserved goals past West Ham (2.03 xG).
Manchester City
Everything is clear with Manchester City. They easily dismantled Ipswich (4:1). The only unpredictable moment was Ipswich’s opening goal, something that can happen to any top team. The key takeaway was what happened next: 3 goals for City between the 12th and 16th minutes, including a hat-trick from Erling Haaland. Overall, they had 3.34 xG. Arguments about facing a debutant side dissipate when looking at Chelsea, who hammered Wolverhampton but wept bitter tears at Stamford Bridge after a defeat to City, which saw City produce only 0.77 xG.
West Ham - Manchester City Prediction
West Ham haven't managed to take a point from Manchester City in their last four meetings and haven't won in their last 17 encounters. Only twice have the Manchester side scored fewer than two goals. The last time West Ham beat City (2:1) was in September 2015, pre-Guardiola era. Recently, even playing at home hasn’t helped West Ham: in their last seven matches at the London Stadium, they have only one win, four draws, and two losses. We believe the trend will continue, and Manchester City will win.
