Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Wolfsburg face a major setback ahead of their tough home clash against the reigning champions. Goalkeeper Kamil Grabara is ruled out, meaning replacement Koen Casteels will start. In the previous round against Eintracht Frankfurt (1:1), Wolfsburg’s defence struggled, conceding 1.28 xGA and facing 16 shots, despite having only 39% possession.
Wolfsburg
Since January, Wolfsburg have improved in attack, scoring 11 goals in five matches. However, defensive issues persist, with seven goals conceded (7.23 xGA). Their last home fixture ended in a frustrating draw against Holstein Kiel (2:2), where the relegation battlers created just 0.27 xG but still scored twice from two shots on target.
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern Leverkusen are not as dominant as they were in the first half of the season, but with a crucial title-deciding match against Bayern Munich coming up next week, they cannot afford to drop points. Since the November international break, they have been clinical in front of goal, scoring 28 times from just 17.83 xG. Their latest match in the DFB-Pokal against Köln (3:2 after extra time) showcased their resilience, coming from 0:2 down to win in extra time.
Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
Since October 2023, Wolfsburg have lost all three encounters against Bayer (1:2, 0:2, 3:4). Given Leverkusen’s firepower and Wolfsburg’s defensive issues, the visitors should claim another victory.
