Aston Villa vs Bayern Munich: A Real Shootout in Champions League
On Wednesday, October 2, Aston Villa and Bayern Munich will clash at Villa Park in one of the most unpredictable fixtures of the Champions League round. Some might say this is exactly the kind of matchup the new Champions League format was designed for, where giants face off more frequently. That “someone” is likely a Villa fan because, with all due respect, there is a clear favourite.
Who will win: Aston Villa or Bayern Munich?
Yes, only the lazy haven’t mentioned the 1982 European Cup final, where Villa claimed their only major European trophy by defeating Bayern 1-0. But as we know, victories aren’t earned by flipping through history books. In our preview, we will analyse the teams’ chances and offer some interesting betting options.
Both teams have started their domestic leagues and Champions League campaigns with victories, but recently stumbled and are eager for redemption. Additionally, the new Champions League format with eight total group-stage matches seems to have encouraged teams to remove the handbrake in pursuit of three points. It’s tempting to believe that in these conditions, both sides will play an open game, with neither chasing a draw.
Aston Villa pre-match analysis
At the weekend, Villa were on course for a seventh win in eight matches—and second spot in the Premier League table—but they let a 2-1 lead slip to draw with newly promoted Ipswich Town and now occupy fifth place. They kicked off their Champions League campaign with a confident 3-0 victory over Young Boys.
Aston Villa are averaging two goals per game, ranking third in the Premier League for goals scored. Last season’s standout Ollie Watkins is yet to score in the Champions League, but he’s among the top five scorers in the Premier League.
In addition to their impressive rise under Unai Emery in the domestic league, the Birmingham club won their first six home matches en route to last season’s Conference League semifinals, returning to UEFA competition after 13 years. However, there’s an important nuance: this season, Aston Villa have rarely faced top-tier opponents. When they have, like against Arsenal, they lost without scoring. It’s unlikely that the Villans will leave the field without a goal this time, but don’t expect a flurry of goals either.
Injuries are adding to the complications. Unai Emery has been without his captain, John McGinn, for Aston Villa’s last two matches due to a hamstring injury, and the Scottish star will now miss Wednesday’s game. Matty Cash (thigh) is also ruled out, while long-term absentees Tyrone Mings and Boubacar Kamara have both returned to full training but are not yet ready to feature for the first team.
The picture that’s emerging is that with shortages in defence and midfield, Villa are conceding quite a bit. Nine goals conceded is the level of teams from the lower half of the Premier League table. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to fend off the Bavarian juggernaut in such circumstances. The only question is how many they will concede.
As for scoring, that seems almost certain, as we've said. In addition to Watkins and those who scored against Young Boys—Tielemans, Ramsey, and Onana—there’s also Morgan Rogers. He created four chances from open play in his Champions League debut—the most by an English player in their first appearance since Danny Welbeck in 2009—and netted his first Premier League goal of the season last weekend.
When it comes to goals, answers to the “who” and “how many” questions may be somewhat vague, but as for the “when,” we can give a more concrete answer. Villa’s chances will likely come late in the game, either after Bayern has sealed the deal or when they tire and start making mistakes. This is where the so-called "Emery time" opens up in the final fifteen minutes. Aston Villa has scored a third of all their goals this season between the 75th and 90th minutes.
Bayern pre-match analysis
Vincent Kompany's Bayern Munich are currently on an impressive run, going 13 matches unbeaten across all competitions and scoring a staggering 57 goals in the process—including a 9-2 thrashing of Dinamo Zagreb in their Champions League opener. It seems like everything is going in for the Bavarians. With an xG (expected goals) of 9.53, they’ve managed to score 14 from open play, which highlights their attacking prowess rather than any over-performance. They tend to strike early, especially in away games, with an average of just 14 minutes needed to score their first goal. It’s highly likely Bayern will open the scoring in the upcoming match.
The Champions League is Bayern’s comfort zone. The six-time European champions are unbeaten in 41 group-stage matches, with 37 wins since September 2017. Their last group-stage loss dates back to the days when Francesco Totti was still playing! After crushing Dinamo Zagreb, Bayern became the only team to score nine goals in a single Champions League match, with a record 19 shots on target.
The main threat for Bayern comes from Harry Kane, whose recent injury scare seems to have been minor. Kane has been in exceptional form, averaging a goal every 55 minutes this season, with 12 goals in nine appearances for club and country.
His support will likely come from Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala. Musiala, in particular, created more chances than any other player on the first matchday of this season’s Champions League, with seven chances, all from open play.
Manuel Neuer has recovered from his thigh issue and played on Saturday, but Sacha Boey, Josip Stanišić (both knee injuries), and summer signing Hiroki Ito (foot) remain unavailable. However, none of these players are key components of Kompany’s restructured Bayern, which means finding weaknesses in their system remains difficult.
Aston Villa vs Bayern Munich Prediction
So, a proven past master in Europe Unai Emery has already bested Bayern Munich twice. This suggests the cunning Spanish manager has a game plan for victory. His side have managed to score 2 or more goals in their last six matches, but it's important to note that Aston Villa hasn't faced opponents comparable to Bayern Munich this season. On top of that, their squad is dealing with a number of injuries.
Bayern Munich, on the other hand, have only lost one of their last 10 Champions League encounters against English teams. But that’s not the main point. As mentioned earlier, victories aren’t crafted in the archives of history. At the moment, the German side looks almost invincible. While teams like Bayer Leverkusen have tried parking the bus recently to secure a draw, that approach doesn’t align with Unai Emery’s style, nor Aston Villa’s current philosophy.
Having reached the quarter-finals or better in 12 of their last 13 campaigns, Bayern will aim to finish in the top eight once again, avoiding a potential playoff, and securing a win at Villa Park is clearly part of their plan. Goals and a Bayern victory seem to be on the horizon.
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