British Politics Betting Odds: Trends and the Best Bookmakers

Is Farage really the next Prime Minister?

Following the scandalous resignation of MP Mike Amesbury, the UK will hold the first by-election since the 2024 general election in Runcorn and Helsby. As a reminder, the Labour MP assaulted one of his constituents in October last year and was arrested. Bookmakers are already offering bets on which party’s candidate will take his place.

Runcorn and Helsby by-election Winner

Reform UK

13/20

Labour

6/5

Conservatives

20/1

But what other bets are available in one of the fastest-growing betting markets? We will explain everything, show you which sites offer the best opportunities, and highlight the most attractive odds. We’ll also cover key trends in UK political betting.

UK Politics Betting Odds

Since Brexit, Brits have fully immersed themselves in political betting. No wonder—there are plenty of long-term bets with high odds. For example, you could have backed Brexit at 2/1. That’s exactly what an anonymous punter did in 2016, pocketing £100,000 in profit from Betfair.

In less than ten years, the share of political bets in the UK has grown from 1% to 3%, and at peak times it reaches as much as 5%. Among the sea of different options, there are real value bets. This is because bookmakers don’t feel strong competition from professional punters, unlike in football or tennis.

Trends in UK Political Betting

Politics is, of course, an extremely unpredictable market, often driven by public mood swings. Just think about the fact that even the year of the next general election is not known in advance.

Year of Next General Election

2029/Later

4/5

2028

7/4

2027

12/1

The lowest odds are on the government completing its full five-year term. However, in the last ten years, Parliament has been dissolved early twice (2017, 2019). The most recent election, although held in the same year as scheduled, also took place earlier than planned.

The political landscape is unstable. Amid constant reshuffling in government, international conflicts, and the migration crisis, we would be surprised if the current leadership under Labour’s Keir Starmer lasts three years. 

In the past ten years, the UK has had five different Prime Ministers, with four of the transitions happening without elections—exclusively through internal party procedures within the Conservative Party.

Changes of Prime Ministers Without General Elections

Keir Starmer Exit Date

2029/Later

7/4

2026

4/1

2028

4/1

Bookmakers have always correctly predicted the winning party in general elections. At least, that has been the case over the last 14 years of Conservative dominance. And they also foresaw Labour’s return to power. Then again, you didn’t need to be a genius to predict it—everyone who turned on the TV or stepped outside over the past three years saw the worst catastrophe in Conservative history coming.

Next UK General Elections. Most Seats

Paradoxically, the frontrunner in the race to become the next Prime Minister isn’t a Conservative or a Labour candidate, but British politics’ biggest troublemaker—Nigel Farage. This scenario is only possible with a coalition government between the Tories and Reform UK. And there have already been clear hints at this from Shadow Minister Greg Smith:

Next Prime Minister

Farage

3/1

Badenoch

6/1

Streeting

8/1

There’s nothing extraordinary about this possibility. Over the past 20 years, the country has already been led by candidates from coalition governments (David Cameron and Boris Johnson). Theresa May, in fact, headed a minority government.

Where and How to Bet on UK Politics

Betfred

• Create an account
  

• Go to the Betfred website or app

• Register and verify your account

• Deposit funds
  

• Add money to your account using your preferred payment method

• Find the Politics section
  

• Click on "Sports"

• Scroll and select "Politics"

• Choose a UK political market
  

• Example: Next UK Prime Minister, Next General Election winner

• Select your odds
  

• Click on the selection you want to back

• Place your bet
  

• Enter your stake in the bet slip

• Confirm and place your bet

Unibet

• Sign up or log in
  

• Visit Unibet online or via app

• Complete registration if needed

• Make a deposit
  

• Fund your account through available payment options

• Go to the Politics betting section
  

• Click on "Sports"

• Select "Politics" in the menu

• Choose UK Politics
  

• Look for UK-specific markets (e.g., Election outcome, Party leader odds)

• Pick your selection
  

• Click the odds you want

• Enter your stake and confirm
  

• Fill in your bet amount in the bet slip

• Confirm your bet

Bet365

• Register or log in
  

• Open the Bet365 website/app

• Sign up and verify your identity

• Deposit money
  

• Top up your account balance

• Navigate to Politics markets
  

• Click "Sports"

• Scroll to "Politics" section

• Select "UK Politics"

• Select a betting option
  

• Example: Next Prime Minister, General Election results

• Click on the odds
  

• Add your choice to the bet slip

• Place your bet
  

• Enter the amount you want to bet

• Confirm your wager

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