England vs Greece: Dream Team Meets Forgotten European Champions
In the UEFA Nations League, England host Greece as both teams come into this clash with two wins in their opening matches. This head-to-head encounter will determine the group leader. The game is set for October 10 at Wembley Stadium. Greece currently top the group due to a superior goal difference, but England remain the overwhelming favourite. Our preview covers the pre-match analysis, intriguing insights, and the best betting options.
England vs Greece: Who Will Win?
In the previous edition of the UEFA Nations League, England finished at the bottom of their group, earning just three points and falling behind even Hungary. Dropping to League B, the Three Lions found themselves in a difficult position, from which the only way is up. Competing in a division where it's theoretically impossible to win the Nations League is seen by many as an embarrassment. Consequently, expectations for the English team are high, with fans demanding victories in every match. There is particular interest in the progress of interim coach Lee Carsley, who has replaced Gareth Southgate and is quickly gaining respect.
England pre-match analysis
There hasn't been much good news coming from the England national team for quite some time. Many in the country view even a second-place finish at the Euros as yet another disappointment, though it pales in comparison to the embarrassment experienced in the last Nations League. However, leading up to the first matches of the new tournament, there was no doubt among fans about England's return to the top division.
England kicked off the season with two nearly identical victories, both times winning 2:0 against Ireland and Finland in similar fashion. This kind of consistency might encourage some adventurous bettors to place a wager on the exact score in the upcoming match against Greece. However, it's important to note that Ivan Jovanović's team presents a much tougher challenge.
Concerns regarding the injury of Harry Kane, the top scorer who netted a brace against Finland, have been alleviated. He is likely to take the field. However, Ezri Konsa, Kobbie Mainno, and Morgan Gibbs-White have all withdrawn after suffering injuries on Sunday. Kane has already scored 10 times this season, so he is highly likely to do it again.
Despite a lineup plagued by injuries, the English squad is bursting with talent. Phil Foden, Kyle Walker, and Jude Bellingham are all eager to make their appearances for the first time since the Euro 2024 final. However, Bellingham has started the season at Real Madrid on a less than stellar note, with only one assist in La Liga and the Champions League. Nevertheless, with Rodri's injury reigniting hopes for the Ballon d'Or, the British midfielder will undoubtedly strive to showcase his skills in the upcoming match.
Many observers have noted similarities between Lee Carsley's tactical approach and that of Gareth Southgate, who was often criticised for his "boring" and pragmatic style of football. Critics have even suggested that Carsley's post-match interviews carry a whiff of "Southgate-ism."
However, while the new England squad, like the old, favour a calm control of the game—evidenced by their 74% possession rate against Finland—there are notable changes occurring within the team. One significant shift is the call-up of Dominic Solanke, who had been persistently overlooked by Southgate for seven years. Furthermore, journalists from The Standard have drawn comparisons between the team's performances under Carsley and those at the Euros under Southgate, revealing some surprising statistics.
Southgate vs Carsley
|
England at Euro 2024 |
Head-to-Head |
England at Nations League |
|
7 |
Games |
2 |
|
8 |
Goals |
4 |
|
6.15 |
XG |
4.21 |
|
0.87 |
XG per Game |
2.1 |
|
4.6 |
Crosses per Game |
21.0 |
Of course, with all due respect, Ireland and Finland are not the Netherlands and Spain. And what conclusions can be drawn after just two matches? However, the increase in goal-scoring opportunities and the nearly five-fold rise in the number of crosses (which indicates the involvement of wide players or fullbacks in delivering balls into dangerous areas) cannot help but instil optimism in the fans.
Greece pre-match analysis
If the English team faltered into League B, the Greeks fought their way up from League C. The 2004 European Champions did not qualify for the tournament in Germany this summer, so the Nations League became their main priority.
In his very first match against Finland, Fotis Ioannidis made an immediate impact. The forward spent 77 minutes on the field, scored two goals, and secured the victory for his team. In the same match, the first assist was credited to Anastasios Bakasetas, the best playmaker for the Greek national team and the entire tournament. However, if bookmakers are placing their hopes on any Greek player, it is Vangelis Pavlidis, who has already scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist for Benfica this season.
The higher-profile opponent, Ireland, did not intimidate the Greeks. Ivan Jovanović's squad kept possession balanced (51% to Ireland's 49%), took more shots (9 to 7), and had more on target (4 to 1). In the second half, Bakasetas masterfully set up two goals with assists to Ioannidis and Tzolis, breaking through Ireland's defence.
Greece have no major injury concerns and will hope that their star players from the Premier League, West Ham’s Dinos Mavropanos and Liverpool’s Kostas Tsimikas, can help them achieve a tremendous result.
England vs Greece Betting Odds
Despite their superiority in class and abundance of stars, we don't expect a flurry of goals from England. The team is currently scoring just enough (or slightly more) to secure victories. In their last 10 matches, they have scored fewer than three goals. Furthermore, Greece has managed to keep a clean sheet in five out of their last six matches. Even Germany, who managed to beat them, only scored twice (2-1).
There's no doubt that England will be taking a lot of shots on goal. On average, in this Nations League, they attempt just under 20 shots per match. Unfortunately, such markets are quite rare. A good betting option could be to wager on the total number of shots by Jack Grealish, who scored one of the goals against Ireland and is among the most prolific shooters in the England squad.
If Greece can hold firm in the first half, just like Finland did, England would apply relentless pressure, and we could see a flurry of cards. Only eight teams in this Nations League have received more yellow cards than Greece, who average a yellow card every half hour. Under the worst circumstances, a red card is also a possibility.
England vs Greece Prediction
In this tournament, England have consistently scored in only one half of the match. Don’t expect much action in the second half, especially if the first half ends 1-0. However, the home team will definitely be playing for victory: securing first place in the group is at stake, along with the chance to establish a comfortable position early in the season without waiting for the intensity of European competitions and domestic leagues, where English stars risk injury due to their busy schedules.
England have a significant historical advantage over Greece in their head-to-head matches: the visitors have never won, losing 7 out of 9 encounters, with a goal difference of 23-3. However, it's not just about past victories (the teams haven't met in 18 years). With the strong squad and a coach eager to prove himself and push for a more attacking style, the English team should confidently secure a win at home.
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