Finland vs England: Both Teams Struggling to Avoid Embarrassment
Finland hosts England at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium for their fourth match in the Nations League. Both teams come into the game in poor spirits: the home side is firmly rooted to the bottom of the group, while England recently suffered a shocking loss to Greece — their first ever against them. The match will take place on Sunday, October 13. In our preview, we'll cover the latest team updates, current stats, and the best betting tips for this matchup.
Finland vs England: Who Will Win?
Despite their historic defeat on Thursday at the legendary Wembley, where England had remained undefeated for two years — the visitors are still clear favourites. The FIFA ranking places these teams 60 positions apart. England, currently ranked fourth, have a track record of dominating teams ranked below 50th, with a win percentage hovering around 90%. Let's start with the visitors.
England: A Wounded Lion is Twice as Dangerous
Vangelis Pavlidis, with his brace against Pickford, drove what was likely the first, though not the last, nail into Lee Carsley's managerial coffin. Following his post-match comments hinting at a possible return to the U21 squad, bookmakers quickly suspended betting lines on England’s next permanent coach. Before the match, Carsley had odds of 1/9 to remain in charge. And do you know what the odds were for England to top their group in the "easy" League B? A mere 1/20. But, unsurprisingly, those odds are being recalculated as we speak.
The Lions are hungry for revenge and redemption. However, analysts agree that if England’s revenge comes, it won't be a scene straight out of “Kill Bill”. England have grown unaccustomed to scoring heavily. In their last 11 matches, they haven’t scored more than 2 goals in any game. With an average scoring rate of 1.6 goals per match, a bet on the under seems like a reasonable choice.
Lee Carsley finds himself in a situation akin to holding either Ali Baba's treasures or the biggest Swiss bank vault. The total market value of England's players is around half a billion euros, approximately 50 times more than Finland’s squad. However, English stars often perform differently for their clubs than they do for the national team.
Take Jude Bellingham, for example, who recently returned to the squad after the Euros. He made a desperate attempt to rescue the team in the final minutes against Greece, scoring in the 87th minute, a skill he showcased at the Euros as well. It’s clear that Bellingham is eager to turn around what has been a disappointing season at club level, and he’ll be hungry for more goals. Notably, he was the only player to register a shot on goal against Greece. In Carsley’s experimental new system, Bellingham has been deployed as a forward, giving him more opportunities to lead the attack.
In their last two Nations League matches, England has only scored in the second half. This brings an unpleasant nostalgia from the playoffs of the last Euros, where Southgate's team kept their fans on edge until the end, managing to score earlier than the 70th minute only once. If Carsley is indeed drifting toward wearing down the opponent and finishing strong late in the game, it’s worth paying attention to England's first-half results.
Finland – No Room to Retreat
Three consecutive defeats in the Nations League. What could be worse, you ask? A fourth match – against a fired-up England. Finland missed out on the Euros and has lost four of their last five games.
To keep their hypothetical chances of staying in League B alive, the Finns need to at least grab a point. But the tactic of sitting deep in defence, which they used in their first match against England, didn’t work. Once England had the ball, they eventually broke through. Carsley's team has won every match in this tournament where their possession exceeded 70%.
The bleak forecast for Finland looks as follows: England will apply pressure, taking control but without rushing. Under Carsley, the number of crosses has increased nearly fivefold, with England averaging 7 corners per game. In short, the Finnish penalty area is going to be under siege. And if they manage to hold out in the first half, they’ll likely be broken in the second half, as evidenced by all their previous second-half defeats.
In a situation where the Finns are likely to have to commit fouls, one specific player comes to the forefront (albeit in a negative sense). Rasmus Schuller, the 33-year-old central midfielder, has picked up four yellow cards in just 19 appearances for his club this season. He also received a yellow card when Finland faced England in their last meeting and has committed five fouls across his two most recent international games.
Finland vs England Prediction
Carsley is trying to establish a more attacking style of play. In this match, he will likely be able to count on the help of Harry Kane, who missed the game against Greece due to injury. The massive gap in quality highlighted in the FIFA rankings and the need for the English to redeem themselves all point in favour of the Three Lions. Additionally, Finland has historically been a very favourable opponent for them, having not achieved a single victory in all 13 encounters, with two draws and 11 wins for England. Overall, we expect a victory for England, but without a fireworks display of goals given the low totals in matches involving these teams and the significance of the upcoming game.
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