Golden Globe 2025: Betting Odds and Prediction
What to Expect from the Oscar Rehearsal?
In early January, the Golden Globes will be awarded. The ceremony is often referred to as the dress rehearsal for the Oscars. In about 40% of cases, the top prize from the juries of both awards goes to the same films. So, who are the main favorites for the Golden Globes themselves? We'll cover everything in our review and suggest the best betting options.
Golden Globe 2025 Betting Odds
If the Oscars are awarded by members of the Academy, a community of professional filmmakers, the Golden Globes are presented by journalists — foreign ones, to be specific. For them, a purely American agenda is less significant. For example, films addressing racial inequality win far less frequently at the Globes than at the Oscars. This time, among the top five favorites, there is only one film about the hardships faced by African Americans — Nickel Boys. And even this one has slim chances of winning.
Golden Globe Best Picture (Drama) Odds
The Golden Globes stand out by splitting their top honor for Best Picture into two categories: Best Drama and Best Comedy or Musical.
Drama
Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much intrigue in this category. The main competitors to The Brutalist — Anora and Emilia Perez — are featured in the other category. Brady Corbet's film about a Jewish architect in post-war America is the undeniable favorite. For over 30 years, the journalists consistently awarded the top prize to stories about strong white men who stand resilient against adversity, from Dances with Wolves to Oppenheimer.
The setting of The Brutalist, however, might not align ideally with Golden Globe preferences. While Holocaust-centered narratives often secure multiple nominations and wins at the Oscars, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has shown less enthusiasm for this subject. They notably overlooked Life is Beautiful and only mildly recognized The Pianist by Roman Polanski four years later.
Spectacle, science fiction, and big-budget blockbusters are rarely in the Globes’ wheelhouse. Since the 1990s, only two exceptions have been made — The Lord of the Rings and Avatar — and even then, largely due to the lack of viable competitors. This clearly isn't the case with Dune this year.
Similarly, A Complete Unknown, which chronicles Bob Dylan's shift to electric sound, can be ruled out. The HFPA isn’t likely to award biopics two years in a row, and honestly, this film doesn’t quite measure up to the standard required for the top honor.
This leaves us with Nickel Boys — which, as we’ve already noted, has the disadvantage of tackling a racial theme that doesn’t typically resonate with this jury — and Conclave by Edward Berger. Religion is an incredibly delicate topic, but ever since Paolo Sorrentino’s masterpiece The Young Pope, the intricacies of Vatican life and political intrigue remain captivating. Moreover, by Rotten Tomatoes ratings, Conclave ranks just below The Brutalist, making it the only serious competitor with slightly inflated odds.
Musical or Comedy
Here’s where the real intrigue lies. Anora is a modern Cinderella story about a stripper, directed by Sean Baker. The film unexpectedly wowed audiences at Cannes and is even in the running for an Oscar. However, it’s worth noting that the Golden Globes have never been awarded to a Cannes winner. Not even in 1980, when Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now was the clear frontrunner.
And this is where the vibrant contender Emilia Perez takes center stage—a lively, genre-blending comedy-thriller about a drug lord who undergoes gender reassignment surgery while on the run. Themes surrounding LGBTQ+ issues resonate more with the Golden Globes jury than other modern trends. Over the past six years, films with such themes have taken the top prize on average once every three years. Even Brokeback Mountain, which the Oscars hesitated to recognize, won the Golden Globe for Best Picture.
Which movie will win best picture (musical or comedy)?
The Golden Globes jury knows how to surprise. In 2021, they awarded the irreverent Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. If the voters feel an urge to experiment again this year, Wicked might have a shot—a vibrant, costume-filled spectacle set in the world of The Wizard of Oz, starring Ariana Grande.
Escapism is not typically the path of the Golden Globes, which leans toward realism. However, exceptions do happen.
Actors and Actresses
The actors and actresses are also divided into "Dramatic" and "Comedic" categories.
Best Actor/Actress (Drama)
In the "Drama" category, the award will almost certainly go to one of the big three: Brody, Fiennes, or Chalamet. Brody, for instance, was passed over for The Pianist, as was Chalamet for his role in Call Me by Your Name. But this pales in comparison to Ralph Fiennes' efforts to win his first Golden Globe. With five nominations and refusals each time, Fiennes' case stands out.
Two key traditions of the Golden Globes are awarding deserving veterans and promoting younger actors to attract a youthful audience. The main question this time is which trend will prevail.
Who will be the Best Actor (Drama)?
Of course, there’s also a chance for Daniel Craig. The brutal James Bond has transformed beyond recognition in Queer. This fits with the trend toward inclusivity and LGBTQ themes, but for awards for transformations, that's usually reserved for the Oscars. McConaughey and Bale wouldn't disagree.
The Golden Globes absolutely love seasoned, accomplished actresses and aren’t shy about awarding them multiple times. This year, it's a true dream team. However, it seems the award has already been preemptively given to Angelina Jolie for her portrayal of the legendary opera singer Maria Callas. Well, it’s nothing new for her—at the turn of the century, she won Golden Globes three years in a row.
Best Actress (Drama) Odds
Best Actor/Actress (Comedy or Musical)
When it comes to the Golden Globes, it's tough for newcomers. First-time nominees winning right away can be counted on one hand. So, we can confidently rule out Jesse Plemons (The People We Hate at the Wedding) and Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night Live) in the Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical category.
The real competition will come down to Jesse Eisenberg and Hugh Grant. Deeply personal and emotional roles in comedies often lead to victory. Just recently, Colin Farrell won with his role in The Banshees of Inisherin. This could be Eisenberg's moment to capitalize on that trend.
However, from an acting perspective, Hugh Grant’s portrayal of a maniac anti-church figure is stronger. Yes, this is his best role. The real question is how the organizers classified a thriller bordering on horror as a musical or comedy.
Who will be the Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)?
When it comes to actresses, the main favorite for Best Actress in a Comedy is Miki Madison. Along with Anora, she’s also a frontrunner for the Oscar. However, let’s not forget that in Cannes, she didn’t win the prize—rather, it went to the ensemble of Emilia Perez. We believe one of the actresses from that film will walk away with the Golden Globe. Voters often have an idea of who will win the Oscar and deliberately award the Globe to someone else. Madison will almost certainly win an Oscar, so her chances for the Golden Globe are likely diminishing.
Who will be the Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)?
Director
Unlike in other categories, the Golden Globe for Best Director is not divided between drama and comedy, which significantly diminishes the chances for "comedian-directors" to win. Over the last 20 years, more than 80% of the awards have gone to directors of dramatic films. Therefore, we wouldn’t bet on Sean Baker (Anora).
The French director Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) is certainly in line with the trend of rewarding international filmmakers—just look at the double wins for Alfonso Cuarón and Alejandro González Iñárritu. However, it seems that voters don’t see directing musicals as something truly serious. Even more likely is a win for Coralie Fargeat, the director of the sensational body-horror film Substance with Demi Moore. After all, in the last four years, every second award has gone to a female director.
Best Director Odds
Conclusion
Bookmakers tend to predict the Golden Globe winners fairly accurately. For Best Picture, their predictions are correct about 75% of the time. Things are a bit murkier with individual awards, where actors, actresses, and directors are guessed correctly around 50% of the time.
When placing bets, it's important to consider the preferences of journalists. First, they tend to be more conservative than the Academy Awards voters, often rewarding films with "timeless" themes, paying less attention to current trends and topical issues. The same applies to individual awards: The prize is more likely to go to established and recognized artists rather than a rising star.
But of course, trends can always be upended in the most unpredictable ways. Very nice, very nice! — as Borat would say.
Liverpool
Lille
Benfica
Barcelona
Monaco
Aston Villa
Brugge
Juventus
Al-Khaleej
Al-Nassr
