Haaland’s 24/25 Individual Treble Hunt: Betting Odds and Prediction

How Many Golden Boots Will the Norwegian Collect?

The Norwegian goal machine is breaking records one after another. This season, he’s dominating the Premier League, ranking among the top five scorers in the Nations League, and has already made his mark in the Champions League. What more is he capable of? What does the data say? We'll cover it all in our review and, of course, suggest the most intriguing bets.

Erling Haaland EPL 24/25 Top Goalscorer

Premier League - A True Home

Erling Haaland’s father, Alf-Inge, fiercely advocated for his son’s move to Manchester City rather than Real Madrid or Bayern Munich. In his debut season, Erling broke the Premier League record by netting 36 goals, surpassing legends Alan Shearer and Andy Cole. In the following season, even without reaching his best form, the Norwegian claimed another Golden Boot. Pep Guardiola, long searching for the perfect striker, finally found him, despite his earlier complaints about a lack of world-class players at City.

This season, Haaland’s goal tally alone surpasses entire teams like Bologna, with a rate of 1.25 goals per game. But don’t assume there's a magical formula for endless value bets! On average, bookmakers offer odds of 1/2 for Haaland to score in a match. Had you bet £10 on each game from the start of the season, you’d currently be down £5, as he occasionally leaves the pitch without scoring.

However, Haaland shines when playing against mid-table teams. Against Ipswich, West Ham, and Brentford (all ranked no higher than 13th), he has scored a total of 8 goals. Betting on him to score a brace in these games would have yielded a 200% profit. City’s next opponent is Southampton, sitting second-to-last.

Haaland to score at least 2 against Southampton

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Bet

39/10

From a historical perspective, a third consecutive Golden Boot is an unlikely scenario. Only two players have ever achieved this feat in Premier League history.

Consecutive Three-Time Premier League Top Scorers

However, back in those days, there was no City team like today’s — with its phenomenal squad, scoring ability, and, of course, its financial power. And when bookmakers rate Haaland as such a clear favorite, it's hard to argue. In the last 10 years, one of the top two favorites has always ended up winning. But never before have we seen such a disparity in odds this early in the competition.

Just think about it: Haaland scores so many goals that his minimum total is 10 goals higher than his nearest rival, Mohamed Salah. With Haaland averaging 31.5 goals per Premier League season, Bet365 offers 1/10 odds that he will score more than 30 this season. While that might not sound enticing, only one-fifth of the season has passed, and at his current pace, repeating his 2022/23 tally looks more than achievable.

Haaland Total Goals 35 or More in EPL 24/25

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Bet

18/25

Champions League - Shootout with Kane

In the year City lifted the Champions League trophy, Haaland was the tournament's top scorer with 12 goals, thanks to his five-goal haul against Leipzig. This season, Haaland’s main competitor, Harry Kane, has already found his own "Leipzig," netting four goals against a humiliated Dinamo Zagreb. Predictably, Kane is the top scorer and the leading contender to hold onto this status by the end of the tournament. However, in the past 10 years, while bookmakers’ favorites have won often, it hasn’t been a guarantee, with success only 70% of the time.

Erling Haaland Champions League  24/25 Top Goalscorer

Haaland already has three goals after his brace against Sparta, and he’s certainly not done yet, given the nature of the games following the format change. Every fourth match ends in a rout with a goal difference of three or more. Plus, statistics show that top scorers net a significant portion of their goals—around 30%—in the final group stages (which is now the League stage). For Haaland, the key is finding his rhythm. In the season when he became the top scorer, he set a record by scoring in eight consecutive matches. This season’s Champions League run is off to a good start, with goals in two consecutive matches.

The challenge, however, comes from his main competitor, Kane, who might gain additional matches and scoring opportunities through the play-ins. With two consecutive losses, Bayern could miss out on direct qualification to the knockout stage, forcing them into additional games.

Conclusion

In summary, something extraordinary would need to happen for Haaland not to become the Premier League's top scorer. After one-fifth of the season, he's twice as far ahead as his closest competitors. The Champions League is a different story, but it seems Haaland has overcome his slow start and is hitting his stride. How often Pep Guardiola rotates the squad will now play a crucial role, but Haaland will undoubtedly play in the knockout rounds. Considering top scorers usually score 50% of their goals in the playoffs, Haaland's stats should remain intact. Finally, in the Nations League, Haaland already has three goals, just one behind the top scorer, and with upcoming matches against Slovenia (defeated 3-0 in the first fixture) and Kazakhstan, he's poised to add to his tally.