Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots: The NFL's Battle of the Underdogs

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) take on the New England Patriots (1-5) at Wembley Stadium in London, England, on Sunday, October 20, 2024. Despite the criticism the NFL faces for sending its worst matchups across the ocean, the excitement is through the roof. A week before the game, almost all 90,000 tickets have been sold out. 

Let's break down what English fans of the game expect from these two, to put it mildly, non-contenders, and which bets seem especially appealing.

Who Will Win: Jaguars vs Patriots? (including overtime)

Jaguars

2/5

Draw

40/1

Patriots

11/5

The Patriots and Jaguars occupy the bottom spots in the AFC East and AFC South, respectively. While USA Today publicly apologises on behalf of all Americans for the quality of teams sent to Europe, comparing their cringeworthiness to The Kardashians, it's worth noting that the NFL is partially succeeding in its mission. The sport’s popularity outside the U.S. is genuinely growing. According to UK Sports Industry Research, over the past 10 years, the number of NFL fans in England has increased more than sixfold, from 2 million to 13 million.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Defence is a Disaster

The Jaguars were unsuccessful in their first trip across the pond, losing to the Bears 35-16 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams dazzled against Jacksonville’s poor defence, throwing for four touchdowns in the win. The Jaguars' defence, reinforced by Tyson Campbell, Darnell Savage, and Ronald Darby, clearly failed to meet expectations. Jacksonville allows opponents to gain 7.7 yards per pass (29th in the league). And that’s not even their worst stat. For example, by allowing opponents to accumulate 390 yards per game, the Jaguars rank second to last in the entire league.

Jaguars Defence Stats (League rating)

Offence: A Ray of Hope

Hold on. It’s as if we’re not talking about favourites. Yes, they have a terrible record with five losses a third of the way into the season. But in the game before last, they began to find their rhythm, securing their first win of the season (37-34) against the Indianapolis Colts.

Sure, they leave their quarterback vulnerable to opponents — 17 sacks, ranking 25th in the league — but that quarterback is still Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars are averaging 5.3 yards per rush, which, by the way, is the second-best in the league.

Jaguars Offence Stats (League rating)

Overall, the offence raises far fewer concerns. Every other game this season, Doug Pederson’s team has hit the over on the total points line. Together with their opponents, they average 45.3 points per game. That’s 2.8 points higher than the total set for Sunday’s game.

Total points Over 42.5

Bonus £40

Bet

9/10

Moreover, even though they score at the level of teams in the bottom third of the standings, the Patriots' disastrous form, allowing 23.8 points per game, is likely to help the Jaguars surpass even their individual points total.

Jaguar total points Over 23.5

Bonus £50

Bet

17/20

New England Patriots: Is the Season Already Over?

In their first game of the season, the New England Patriots pulled off an upset win as underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. Since then, they haven’t won a game, suffering five consecutive losses, including their most recent defeat against the Houston Texans. The Patriots have been underdogs by 5.5 points or more four times this year, covering the spread in just one of those games.

Jaguars - 5.5

Bonus £50

Bet

3/4

As unfortunate as it is to admit, we are essentially looking at a contest over who will perform worse. The Patriots' defensive stats are just as hair-raising as the "achievements" of Jacksonville.

Patriots Defence Stats (League rating)

The Patriots, as we can see, allow their opponents to dominate in their red zone. However, with the Jaguars' offence ranked around 22nd in the league, they’re unlikely to fully capitalise on these gifted opportunities. Both teams transition to offence sluggishly. The guys from New England rank third in the league in the number of punts (32), while the Jaguars are in the top ten. In short, if the game stalls early, we might have to wait a while for the first touchdown. By the way, if there's one group that can't be blamed, it's the kickers. Cam Little from the Jaguars and Joey Slye from the Patriots are both ranked in the top 20 in the league, with 10 and 9 field goals respectively.

First Score Method Field Goal

Bonus £30

Bet

57/50

Unlike the Jaguars, the Patriots won’t be able to make up for their defensive shortcomings with a quick offence. By most metrics, they rank among the bottom five teams this season.

Patriots Offence Stats (League rating)

At one point in the season, Coach Jerod Mayo changed direction, starting 2024 1st-round pick QB Drake Maye in Week 6, and he helped the Patriots to a season-high 21 points in a loss to the Houston Texans. The Patriots struggle to score more than 19 points in just one out of every three games. In the other four games, their average score of 10.5 might make London spectators consider returning their tickets.

Patriots total points Under 16.5

Bonus £50

Bet

11/10

Jaguars vs Patriots Prediction

For over 15 years, the NFL has brought games to England. Rarely do these matchups feature season leaders; more often, teams are chosen to play in overseas games that have little significance. In this battle of the underdogs, Jacksonville looks more favourable this time around. Not least because they have already played one game in London and managed to acclimate, while their opponents will have to hit the ground running. The Jaguars have won 33.3% of their games as moneyline favourites this season. While these aren’t glamorous numbers, they might be enough given the Patriots' disastrous performance both defensively and offensively.

Jaguars -3.5

13/20

Over 41.5

9/10