League 1 Round 6: Favourites, Betting odds and Predictions

13 Sep 13:26

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Who is stronger: Deadpool or Tom Brady?

The sixth matchday of League One is just around the corner. Among those fighting for promotion to the Championship are the League Cup holders, the protégés of Hollywood stars, and the founders of the world's oldest football league.

Last weekend, only six matches were played, all due to international fixtures, which increasingly feature players from League One — a clear indicator of the division's rising quality. Let’s take a look at the most exciting fixtures of the upcoming round, assess the chances of the teams, and suggest some betting options. And, among other things, we will learn what kind of injury one can suffer just by sneezing.

Birmingham vs. Wrexham Odds

In the main match of the round, which, ironically, will be played last, the fourth and first places will face off. The Welsh side are currently three points ahead of their opponents, but Birmingham have a game in hand. The bookmakers consider the home side to be the favourites.

Having won the League Cup in the early 2010s, Birmingham thought they had lifted the century-old gypsy curse placed upon them, but that was the beginning of their sufferings. At the end of last season, the Blues were relegated from the Championship, but they are now pushing for a return, having dropped just two points in their four matches.

In their last five games, Birmingham have suffered two defeats, both in cup competitions. It appears that the team is clearly focused on their return to the Championship. Competing on multiple fronts has stretched Chris Davies' squad, but in League One, they have been nearly flawless. They have won three consecutive matches, scoring an average of two goals per game. It is no surprise that Alfie May shares the top spot on the goal-scoring chart, having found the net in each of the four League One matches this season.

Davies is certainly pleased to have his players back from international duty, but he'll have to figure out how to replace the injured Ethan Laird and Luke Harris. Regarding their condition, the coach said, “Ethan has a knock to his ankle, the same as Luke Harris, so they both look like they are going to be out for a little while now.”

Wrexham are climbing the league ladder triumphantly, and as we predicted in our season preview they haven't faltered in the new campaign. They currently sit at the top of the table with the best goal difference (+9).

On paper, Philip Parkinson's team shows a rock-solid defence. In League One, they have conceded in only one match, and they have kept a clean sheet in the last four consecutive games. But is this perhaps more due to the shortcomings of their opponents? Wrexham have conceded on average less than half a goal per game, but their xGA is almost four times higher (1.4). As for the attack the Welsh side have exceeded their expected numbers, but not so dramatically. Therefore, in the upcoming match, we might see goals from both sides.

Wrexham emerged largely unscathed from the September international break, with only one player, Gambia's left-back Jacob Mendy being called up to the national team, so fatigue isn't a major concern. However, George Evans is still working his way back from a groyne injury, while Andy Cannon has been out of action since last month.

Historically, Birmingham have the upper hand in head-to-head clashes, though nearly all of these matches were played in the previous century. The last meeting in 2006 ended in a 4-1 victory for the Blues. Regardless of the outcome, the upcoming match is set to draw unprecedented attention. Wrexham have Hollywood stars Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds as their backers, while Birmingham boast the support of NFL legend Tom Brady.

On the field, Birmingham seem to have the edge. Playing at home, where they lost just once in 8 previous matches. with greater experience, and making smart use of their record-breaking offseason investments, they look like the stronger side.

Bolton vs. Huddersfield Odds

At the Toughsheet Community Stadium, the season's third favourite, according to bookmakers, Bolton Wanderers, hosts the second main contender for promotion, Huddersfield. However, looking at the league table, where the teams sit 18th and 7th respectively, you wouldn’t guess it.

If points were awarded for a rich and glorious history, Bolton would be vying for the Premier League title. But for now, one of the world's oldest clubs is still struggling to climb out of the third tier. Last year, they came close to promotion, losing in the playoff final to Oxford United (0-2). They began their new League One campaign unsteadily – winning their opener, but that victory remains their only one so far.

Under Ian Evatt, Bolton's recent performances reveal a team still searching for consistency, having netted only 2 goals in their last three matches across all competitions and failing to score in their last three League outings. Meanwhile, Huddersfield haven't been prolific either, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. Given these circumstances, a low-scoring match seems likely, with both sides likely to focus on solid defence.

As if they didn't have enough attacking problems, Bolton recently lost a striker in a situation as comical as it was unfortunate. Victor Adeboyejo aggravated his injury by sneezing. "Victor has been suffering with a nasty back injury, and a sneeze set it off, believe it or not," Ian Evatt told The Bolton News.

Huddersfield, having been relegated from the Championship, seem to have learned their lesson, at least in terms of defence. While last season they often collapsed, conceding up to 4 goals per game, they now rank among the top three for fewest goals conceded in League One (an average of 0.75 per game).

In attack, the Terriers don’t waste opportunities. Their average number of goals scored nearly matches their xG – 1.5 and 1.6, respectively. Even in games they’ve lost, they’ve scored at least one goal.

Despite decent stats, Huddersfield are currently on a three-match losing streak in different competitions, all of which have been away games. However, their injury situation is promising. Apart from an otherwise full-strength squad, Huddersfield manager Michael Duff has just one fitness concern: Ollie Turton is unavailable due to a meniscus injury.

The hosts are considered favourites. The fans believe their prolonged losing streak will end, as evidenced by the 20,000 tickets sold nearly a week before the match. They remember that last season, the Trotters lost less than 15% of their home games. However, their opponents have been a tough nut to crack. In head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years, the Terriers have twice as many wins (4-2) and goals (10-5). Additionally, the atmosphere at Bolton is not the most comfortable due to the impending departure of Chief Executive Neil Hart. Meanwhile, Huddersfield have lost just once this season in League One.

Crawley Town vs. Stockport County Odds

In Crawley, the 12th-placed team hosts the second-place side and one of the main contenders for promotion, Stockport. Bookmakers hardly believe in the hosts, expecting the Hatters to keep them firmly in their rabbit hole.

This season, Crawley Town epitomise the concept of a "solid mid-table" team, with moderate statistics in goals scored and conceded, and sitting right in the middle of the table. They've lost their last three games with a combined score of 0-8. If statistics are to be believed, the team concedes deservedly, at least in League One, as their average number of goals conceded and xGA are identical (1.3).

The Reds have no draws in League One this season, with 2 wins and 2 losses. Home advantage seems to make no difference, but they concede fewer goals at home. Nevertheless, the odds for Stockport scoring more than 1.5 goals in the upcoming match remain quite low.

Interestingly, this game at the Broadfield Stadium will feature two teams with polar opposite records in terms of yellow cards. Stockport are third from the bottom with 6 yellow cards, while Crawley have twice as many and proudly sit third in the league. Understanding the high likelihood of numerous cards in a match between a stronger team and notorious rough players, bookmakers have removed this market due to tiny odds. However, betting on corners is an option, given Stockport’s preference for scoring with headers (with 2 goals, they are among the top five in the League).

Following their humiliation at the hands of Blackburn Rovers (1-6) in the League Cup earlier this season, Stockport have gone on a 5-match unbeaten run, dropping just 2 points in League play, scoring an average of 2 goals per game, and conceding just once – in a 1-1 draw away to Mansfield.

Stockport County's recent matches highlight their tendency for high-scoring games, with their last 6 matches producing 21 goals, averaging 3.5 goals per match.

With most of the squad healthy, Stockport County manager Dave Challinor has only one fitness concern: Tayo Adaramola, who is sidelined due to a knock. The away factor doesn’t bother them; they remain unbeaten in three consecutive away games. Even if the Reds park the bus, the visitors are likely to score at least one goal, and probably more.

Stevenage vs. Barnsley odds

The league's third-best defence takes on the second-best attack. Last season, Barnsley reached the playoffs, while Stevenage fell short by 5 points. In the new season, the teams have been scattered to opposite ends of the table, but the odds of winning this match are nearly even.

In League One this season, Stevenage have matched their number of games played with their points total, leaving them in 17th place. They have gone three consecutive games without a win, with their only victory in the last five matches coming in the EFL Trophy against Crystal Palace’s youth team.

The good news is that while Stevenage don't score much, they also rarely concede – averaging just 0.75 goals against per game. At home, their defence is even tighter, with only one goal conceded in three matches. It's not just luck; their xGA closely aligns with the actual goals conceded.

However, many doubt the hosts will be able to hold off one of the league’s best attacks, led by Adam Phillips, who shares the top spot on the scorers' chart with Alfie May (4 goals).

Barnsley stumbled at the start of the new campaign, losing 1-2 at home to Mansfield Town, but have remained unbeaten since, averaging 2 goals per game and defying the odds, particularly on the road. The Tykes score 36% more goals than expected.

However, they also concede quite a few goals, at a rate similar to mid-table teams. Of course, this might be seen as a compliment for a team like Stevenage, but that’s not the case here. They’ve kept a clean sheet in just one of their five League One matches.

Barnsley may be considered favourites on paper, but status rarely matters on the pitch. The rivals know each other well, and in recent encounters, they have alternated victories, even matching the number of goals scored. We are in for a match of equals, where predicting a winner seems like a shot in the dark.

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