LeBron + Dončić = Championship? LA Lakers' Odds for the 2024-25 Season
Will the Genius Transfer Pay Off?
With just weeks left in the NBA regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers made a bold move by acquiring Luka Dončić from Dallas. This trade has turned them, if not into the top favorite, then certainly into the league’s biggest dark horse.
What are JJ Redick’s squad’s chances? What odds are bookmakers offering on them? We’ll break it all down and, of course, highlight the best bets.
LA Lakers Betting Odds
The Lakers currently sit fourth in the league, second in the Western Conference, and first in their division. Given the current standings, their position is unlikely to change before the regular season ends.
La Lakers odds to win
With a game in hand, LeBron and company have pulled five wins ahead of the Warriors in the division. However, the situation in the conference is less favorable. Despite the extra game, they trail the Thunder by more than ten wins. Bookmakers generally view the Western Conference as stronger this year.
Winning Conference
NBA Outright Betting Trends
At the start of the season, the Lakers' title odds were as high as 28/1—understandable, given that they barely made the playoffs through the Play-In Tournament last year, only to be eliminated in the first round. Now, their odds have dropped threefold.
This isn’t unusual. Over the past five seasons, in half of the cases, the preseason favorites didn’t match the favorites heading into the playoffs. As for a team winning the championship after being the bookmakers' top preseason pick, that has happened only twice in the last five years. One of those instances? The Lakers in 2019-20.
However, bookmakers have been more accurate with their playoff favorites. Over the past 15 seasons, the team favored before the playoffs ended up winning the championship roughly one in three times.
The Boston Celtics are the top pick among oddsmakers, primarily because they are the reigning champions. But here’s the catch: no team has won back-to-back titles in the last six seasons.
Interestingly, punters are backing the Lakers. According to Oddschecker, about 20% of all NBA outright bets in the UK are placed on the Lakers, more than on any other team.
Lakers' Championship Prospects
Trading away a first-round pick for Luka Dončić was a clear statement: the team is focused on winning now. It’s time to catch up to the Celtics in total championships.
Since January 15, the Lakers have had the best defense in the NBA and boast a dominant trio of LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and Austin Reaves, making them a strong contender against any opponent.
LA Lakers 2024-25 Regular Season Stats
Metric |
Result (League rank) |
Three Point Percentage Allowed |
34.7 (3) |
Field Goals Percentage |
48.1 (7) |
Points Allowed |
111.1 (8) |
The Lakers now have two players capable of averaging 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists in the playoffs—Luka Dončić and LeBron James.
So far, in his nine games with the Lakers, Dončić has averaged 24.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 8.1 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, while James has posted 27.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 9.4 assists, and 1.2 steals in the same span.
Catching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race this season seems unlikely for LeBron, even with his impressive 10 triple-doubles (second-most in the league). However, over the last 15 years, only two players have won three MVP titles—and LeBron is one of them.
Dončić, who once planned to finish his career in Dallas, admitted he was shocked by the trade. But he seems to be adjusting at record speed. L.A. has won 18 of its last 22 games, including six straight, fueled by its new superstar duo. During this six-game winning streak, James has been the Lakers' top scorer three times, while Dončić has also led the team in scoring three times.
The Lakers still need time to build chemistry with their new lineup. If head coach JJ Redick can successfully integrate his roster, he could become a top contender for Coach of the Year—despite the long odds currently offered by bookmakers.
Main Competitors
Two of the Lakers’ three main competitors are in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics claimed the title last year without facing much serious resistance. Since the start of the new year, the Celtics rank fourth in defensive rating and seventh in offensive rating. They’ve gone 5-3 against the other top-four teams in the Eastern Conference and have been exceptional from three-point range, making more threes per game than any team in NBA history while holding opponents to the fifth-fewest made threes per game.
Based on their performances so far, the Cavaliers arguably deserve to be ranked higher, despite currently sitting third in the odds. They held the league’s best record for much of the season, rank second in net rating, and lead the NBA in both two-point and three-point shooting percentages. Their bench has also been one of the league’s best, ranking top three in average point differential. However, they’re just 1-2 against the Celtics and 1-1 against the Thunder.
The only serious competitor in the West seems to be worth two in the East. The Thunder have firmly established themselves as the league’s top defensive team, allowing four fewer points per 100 possessions than their closest competitor, the Los Angeles Clippers. Offensively, they’ve climbed to third in rating since the start of the new year and are expected to improve even more as Chet Holmgren continues to find his form after an early-season injury. Additionally, OKC boasts the best net rating (+9.9) in matchups against teams with top-10 point differentials.
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