Man City vs. Real Madrid: Odds and Prediction for the Champions League Match

On Tuesday, February 11, Manchester City will host Real Madrid in the Champions League knockout stage at the Etihad Stadium. How many new scratches will appear on Pep Guardiola’s face, and how high will Carlo Ancelotti’s eyebrow rise? Unfortunately, bookmakers haven’t offered odds on those. But all the sports bets are in place.

Man City vs. Real Madrid: Who Will Win?

MC

27/20

Draw

27/10

Real

37/20

Our preview includes a pre-match analysis of both teams and, as always, the most interesting betting options.

Man City vs. Real Madrid Betting Odds

In the last five head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid holds a slight edge with two wins compared to City’s one, while two matches ended in a draw. However, despite Manchester City's disastrous form, they remain the bookmakers' favorites—likely because even in this state, City don't lose at home (two wins and two draws in the League Stage). In fact, their unbeaten home streak spans 35 matches, dating back to the 2018/2019 season.

Man City vs Real Betting Odds

Real and City have faced each other 12 times, with a draw being the most common outcome (5). Given both teams' elite attacks and leaky defenses, the experts at Sports Illustrated have even dared to predict a specific scoreline. A 2:2 draw is available at 8/1

Man City Analysis

This is the worst Manchester City side under Pep Guardiola, as he continues to set one negative record after another—both club and personal. His recent divorce likely played a role in this decline, but the team's struggles are multifaceted. A mix of motivation issues, injuries to key players, and an aging squad have all contributed to their downturn.

Ballon d’Or winner Rodri is out for the rest of the season, while it’s unclear when Doku and Aké will return. Rúben Dias has only just started his recovery, making it unlikely he'll start against Real. Meanwhile, Kyle Walker has moved to Milan, and both Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish seem to be just playing out the season.

In the winter transfer window, City’s owners desperately threw money around, spending more than any other club in Europe—€218 million.

So far, Khousanov has failed to strengthen the defense, but City’s attack remains formidable. They finished seventh in the group stage scoring charts with 18 goals, and Marmoush and González are expected to make an impact—provided the latter recovers from his injury in the last cup match. Guardiola’s men have hit Over 1.5 Team Goals in 9 of their last 10 matches, the only exception being their humiliating 1:5 defeat to Arsenal.

Man City: Over 1.5 goals

Bonus £40

Bet

3/4

City’s key players have had slightly more time to rest. Their last match, an FA Cup tie against Leyton Orient, was played with a mostly reserve squad. And despite everything, they still managed to win.

Manchester City’s Last Five Matches

While City’s injuries are spread across all areas of the pitch, Real Madrid are dealing with a defensive crisis—more on that later. One thing is clear: Haaland will have his chances. With six goals, he is currently tied for fourth place among the top scorers from the league stage. He has also scored in four of his last six matches across all competitions.

Erling Haaland to Score Anytime

Bonus £50

Bet

1/1

Real Madrid Analysis

Los Blancos sit at the top of La Liga, but their lead over their main rivals has dwindled. In the Champions League, things have been even more turbulent. This season, they have already suffered more defeats (3) than in the previous two seasons combined. Their defensive situation is a disaster—and it keeps getting worse. Alongside Carvajal, Alaba, and Éder Militão, Rüdiger has now joined the injury list. They rank 14th in the tournament for goals conceded (12).

To compensate, Real relies on their attack. Only Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona have scored more in this year’s competition. Rodrygo, Vinícius, and Bellingham have combined for nearly as many goals as City’s entire squad.

Vinícius Jr. has scored in four of his last six UCL matches, including a brace and a hat-trick. And City seems to be one of his favorite opponents—five goal contributions (goals + assists) in eight matches against them.

Vinicius Junior to score or give an assist

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Bet

9/10

It seems we even know when Real Madrid will score—at least their decisive goals. These guys have mastered the art of stepping up at the last moment. They have scored three times as many goals in the second half as in the first (15 vs. 5), while conceding an equal number throughout both halves.

Meanwhile, City have a habit of collapsing late in games. In three of their last five UCL matches, they dropped points despite scoring first. Feyenoord came back from 0-3, while PSG pulled off an even bigger comeback, turning 0-2 into 4-2. The odds on Real Madrid are massive.

Second Half: Real Madrid Over 1 goal

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Bet

31/20

Unlike City, Real Madrid didn’t get the luxury of rest before this crucial match. They battled to a hard-fought 1-1 draw against their title rivals, Atlético Madrid, in La Liga.

Real Madrid’s Last Five Matches

Man City vs. Real Madrid Prediction

There’s already talk that this clash could determine both the future Champions League winner (yes, the 11th and 22nd in the league stage) and Xabi Alonso’s next club.

Three times before, Real Madrid knocked City out in the knockout stage and went on to lift the trophy. However, in 2023, Guardiola pulled off the same trick against them. As for Alonso, he’s the leading candidate to take over at both clubs next season.

Bookmakers favor Real to advance but don’t back them to win the first leg. Then again, no team has defied betting odds more often than Real Madrid in the Champions League.

Some things are more certain than the winner—this will be a battle between elite attacks and struggling defenses, most likely turning into a goal-fest.

• In City’s last five matches, BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals has landed every time.

• In four of those five, even BTTS + Over 3.5 has hit.

• Real has seen BTTS land in six of their last ten games.

Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5

Bonus £30

Bet

13/20

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11 Feb, 20:00