Ancelotti or Alonso: Real Madrid’s Next Manager Odds

The Decision Will Be Made in the Coming Weeks.

This season, Carlo Ancelotti is walking a tightrope. Real Madrid have already suffered a sharp dip in form. However, they still top the La Liga table and have scraped through to the next stage of the Champions League. We analyse whether Ancelotti will remain as Real Madrid’s head coach in light of these results—and who might replace him if he leaves. Of course, we’ll also cover the best betting options.

Next Permanent Real Madrid Manager

Ancelotti's chances to stay

Let's start with the fact that Carlo Ancelotti himself has no plans to leave. Back in December, during a press conference ahead of the match against Red Bull Salzburg, he made this clear to journalists.

The date I leave this club will never be my decision. Florentino will be here for another four years, and he knows me very well. My goal is to stay until then and say goodbye with all the affection in the world.

Carlo’s contract was later extended until 2026. It’s highly unlikely that Florentino Pérez would want to pay a hefty severance, especially after the financial strain of signing Kylian Mbappé.

The numbers favor Carlo. Looking at the stats from a certain angle, one might think that everything at Real Madrid is running smoothly and that Ancelotti should be untouchable. In their last 12 matches across all competitions, they’ve won 10. They sit atop La Liga. Mbappé has settled in and is second in the scoring race with 15 goals. Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are returning to top form.

They’ve also advanced in the Champions League, showing their trademark resilience. Madrid remains Madrid, turning up the intensity late in games and doing just enough to get the job done. In the second halves of matches, they’ve scored three times more goals than in the first (15 vs. 5), though they’ve conceded an equal number in both halves (6 each).

Real Madrid’s Next Manager Odds

But there are some big "Buts". Despite their current standing, Real Madrid are walking a fine line in every competition. After their 0:1 loss to Espanyol, their lead at the top of La Liga has shrunk to a single point. In the Champions League knockouts, they’ll face the most star-studded (albeit struggling) opponent—Manchester City.

Bookmakers have already reacted. At the start of the UCL campaign, Real Madrid had their lowest odds in five years. Now, they are only the fourth favourite, priced at 7/1 No surprise there—Los Blancos are conceding too many goals. They rank 14th in UCL for goals conceded (12). Their defense was already shaky, and now Antonio Rüdiger has suffered an injury in the ill-fated match against Espanyol.

No matter how much faith the club has in Carlo, another prolonged slump—especially after a combined 2-9 record in recent Clásicos—won’t be forgiven. If Madrid drops from first place in La Liga and exits the Champions League before the semifinals, his position will be untenable. Let’s not forget, he’s been sacked three times in the last decade, leaving only Everton on his own terms. Who could replace him?

Next Real Madrid Manager Odds: Top 5 Contenders

Manager

Odds to Win

Xabi Alonso

3/10

Raul

11/1

Zinedine Zidane

14/1

Santiago Solari 

14/1

Míchel 

16/1

With all due respect to the contenders, only Alonso and Raul can be seriously considered. Real Madrid love bringing former players into coaching roles. It’s no coincidence that four of the five main candidates previously played for the club.

Xabi Alonso

After winning the Bundesliga with a relatively modest Bayer Leverkusen, Alonso has been linked with almost every top club—including Manchester City, even before their crisis began. His unbeaten streak of 53 games with Leverkusen is certainly impressive.

However, this season hasn't been entirely smooth in the domestic league. A 9-point gap behind Bayern suggests that repeating last year's success will be difficult. On the other hand, Bayer has unexpectedly and even sensationally made it into the Champions League quarter-finals.

There’s no doubt about Alonso’s qualities or his loyalty to Real Madrid. The real question is whether he can handle a squad full of superstars—especially in a crisis situation.

Since November, the odds on Alonso have dropped more than fivefold. When it comes to top teams and top leagues, bookmakers have only been wrong once in the past year—when they failed to anticipate Amorim’s move to Manchester United. But then again, do we even still consider United a top club?

Raul

The club legend has been coaching Real Madrid B for six years. In 193 matches, he has secured 77 wins, averaging slightly over 1.5 points per game. Decent numbers, but that’s not Raul’s biggest advantage.

His real opportunity lies in a scenario where the club decides to sack Ancelotti but fails to reach an agreement with an external candidate. In that case, Raul could take over as an interim coach, giving him the chance to prove himself and earn the job permanently. Two of the names on our list got their opportunity in exactly this way.

Zidane, Solari, and Michel

Despite Zidane’s historic tenure—being the first coach to win three consecutive Champions League titles—it’s unlikely anyone would risk bringing him back for a third spell. He has already returned once to a changed team, and that stint was far less successful. This squad is now full of unfamiliar faces.

Solari, like Zidane before him, turned an interim role into a permanent job. But it lasted only six months, and he was sacked without achieving any major results.

Despite having higher odds, Girona’s current coach Michel seems a more promising candidate than Zidane or Solari. However, unlike them, he isn’t even linked with Real Madrid in rumors. Typically, when Los Blancos set their sights on a player or coach, it’s a very public pursuit.

Conclusion

Real Madrid rarely fires managers in the final third of the season. In the past 25 years, only two—Solari and Benítez—have been dismissed between January and June. Ancelotti has signed a contract extension, and the only real concern is the surprisingly low odds on Xabi Alonso.

Right now, the chances look 50-50. The only factor that will tip the scales one way or the other is the team’s results in the next two weeks. If Real Madrid qualifies for the Champions League quarter-finals and extends its lead in La Liga, Ancelotti will undoubtedly stay until the end of the season. If not, Alonso will be waiting in the wings.