Premier League Top 5 Betting Odds: The Race for the Champions League

The 2024–25 Premier League season is heading into its final stretch. While the top two spots seem all but settled, the battle for the coveted 3rd to 5th places — now all offering Champions League qualification — is set to rage until the very last minute.

Top 5 Finish Odds

Nottingham Forest

1/2

Chelsea

1/1

Aston Villa

11/4

What are the bookmakers saying? Can the Citizens avoid a humiliating collapse? And what does the supercomputer predict? We'll break it all down — and of course, highlight the best betting value.

Premier League Top 5 Finish Odds

Bookmakers have been spot-on when it comes to predicting the top three, particularly late in the season. Over the last three Premier League campaigns, they haven’t made a single mistake in that department. But that final Champions League spot? That’s where things often go sideways.

Twice in recent years, punters have been let down by Manchester United — in 2022, when Spurs surged ahead, and in 2024, when Aston Villa pulled off a late-season coup. Then again, is anyone really shocked anymore when United stumbles?

Thanks to Arsenal’s brutal dismantling of Real Madrid in Europe, England is now guaranteed five Champions League places for the 2025–26 campaign. Odds for the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool to finish top 5 are so low they’re barely worth mentioning. Newcastle and City are clear favourites among the rest. But beyond them? It’s wide open.

Top 5 Finish Odds

Opta's supercomputer appears to be in full agreement with the betting markets, forecasting the following Premier League finish:

• 3rd – Newcastle United (Probability: 44.0%)

• 4th – Manchester City (Probability: 30.4%)

• 5th – Nottingham Forest (Probability: 30.7%)

Admittedly, with probabilities this tight, you might expect the odds to be a little more generous.

City & Newcastle: Almost Untouchables

Newcastle have two direct rivals still left to face — and a finale against Arsenal that could go down to the wire. But the Magpies are in blazing form. Over the last five matches, no team in the league has been better.

As for Manchester City, their run-in is arguably one of the easiest among the contenders. It’s not often you say that about the Citizens, but this time, the schedule truly plays into their hands.

Top 5 Finish Odds

Newcastle

3/20

Man City

1/5

Together, the two are among the top three in goals scored, with Newcastle also ranking second in total wins this season. Add to that a statistical nugget: bookmakers haven’t misfired on teams with such short odds for a Top 5 finish in any of the past three seasons.

Remaining Fixtures

Nottingham Forest: Can the Upstarts Go the Distance?

Nuno Espírito Santo's side — a team whose manager has already outpaced Mourinho, Ancelotti and Pochettino in Manager of the Month awards — is starting to show signs of fatigue. Two straight defeats and one of the worst five-game runs among the top seven contenders have cast doubt over their staying power.

But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Tricky Trees. On paper, Forest have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the hunt. Their final-day clash with Chelsea is the only real hurdle — and that one's at home.

Yes, their goal output isn’t exactly Champions League calibre, but they’ve got Matz Sels, the league’s clean sheet king and current bookmakers’ favourite for the Golden Glove. 

Matz Sels to Win Golden Glove

Bonus £30

Bet

1/5

Chelsea & Aston Villa: One Point from Glory, a Mile from Certainty

If squad value alone could guarantee a top-five finish, Unai Emery and Enzo Maresca would’ve saved a fortune on sports psychologists. Instead, they face the most nerve-wracking finish among the Premier League elite.

Chelsea have stumbled again — two consecutive draws putting them on edge at the worst possible moment. Villa, on the other hand, are on fire. Four wins in a row, second only to Newcastle in form, and carrying the confidence of a team that finished last season stronger than anyone not named Manchester City.

But of course, that was last year’s City — this year’s version is a different beast. Eliminated from the Champions League, they can finally focus on the domestic battle. And speaking of beasts — have you seen what Rashford and Asensio are doing lately?

Top 5 Finish Odds

Chelsea

1/1

Aston Villa

11/4

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