Roma vs Athletic Bilbao: Betting Odds and Predictions
The match between Roma and Athletic will take place on September 26 at Stadio Olimpico. The UEL opener promises to be an exciting showdown between two teams with vastly different current form. AS Roma aims to build on their recent 3-0 win, while Athletic Club comes into the match strong, with four wins in their last five games.
Who will win: Roma or Athletic Bilbao?
Roma pre-match analysis
The Giallorossi’s recent dominant performance against Udinese, combined with their strong home record, makes them slight favourites. However, it's fair to say that the team hasn't smoothly entered the season. With just three points from four Serie A matches, Roma sacked Daniele De Rossi and replaced him with Ivan Juric. Despite fan protests, Roma secured their first win of the season, beating Udinese 3-0, with goals from Dovbyk, Baldanzi, and Dybala. The previous year's Golden Boot winner in Spain and one of the key players behind Girona's miracle is gradually settling into his new team, and having now scored in back-to-back matches for the Giallorossi, he has a good chance of scoring in the upcoming home game.
Roma concede few goals—only Juventus and Empoli have a better defensive record in Serie A—but when they do, victories become elusive. We can assume that the hosts will primarily focus on preventing Athletic from scoring.
And Roma will definitely aim to score first. In their last five Serie A matches, if the Romans scored before their opponents, they ended up not losing.
Roma, who won the first Conference League under Mourinho, have a solid Europa League record, losing just three of their last 18 matches. Despite their strong home form, they’ve won only one of their last eight encounters with Spanish teams, with Athletic Club set to be their 10th opponent from Spain. In short, the visitors still have a good chance of taking at least a point away from Rome.
Athletic pre-match analysis
Though Roma are UEFA regulars, Athletic haven’t played in Europe since 2018 when they exited the Europa League in the last 16. After three straight defeats that year, they now aim to avoid a fourth consecutive European loss for the first time in their history.
Ernesto Valverde's Athletic will be confident heading into Rome, seeking their fourth consecutive win after three La Liga victories in late September. They recently climbed to third in the table, with a 3-1 win over Celta Vigo thanks to Gorka Guruzeta's brace and Alvaro Djalo's first goal in Spain. Guruzeta, with two goals and two assists this season, is one of the key attacking forces for the Basques.
In addition to their impressive run, the Basques are winning in style. In only one of their last five games did they finish without scoring, averaging just under two goals per match. However, there is one caveat. This time, Athletic Club will be without their star player Nico Williams for their trip to Italy, as the Euro 2024 winner suffered a sprained ankle during the recent match against Leganés. So, their attack may struggle on the road this time.
Yeray Alvarez and first-choice goalkeeper Unai Simon are also unavailable, with Julen Agirrezabala continuing to deputise for the latter between the posts.
Roma vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
Roma and Athletic are not the easiest opponents for each other. In their last head-to-head encounter, neither side managed to tip the scales in their favor. They also come from challenging regions. While the Romans have scraped together just one win in eight matches against Spanish teams, Athletic has won only once in nine previous trips to Italy—and not since 1997.
The Basques are dealing with a lengthy injury list, while Roma's captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is questionable after missing the last training session. Still, the advantage of home ground, the returning form of key players, and Roma's cup experience should play a crucial role. However, the match is likely to be very cautious.
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