Top UK Singles and TV Shows: Christmas Bets and Odds
Who’s Stronger: The King or Gavin and Stacey?
With Christmas just around the corner, it’s time for unique and seasonal betting markets to make an appearance. The trend in recent years has been the predictability of winners and very low odds for favorites. Still, wagering a few dozen pounds with minimal risk can add a little spice to the festive season. So, what options have bookmakers prepared for us this year?
The Most Popular Song of Christmas Week
The winner is determined based on the weekly UK Singles Chart, which takes into account two primary factors:
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Physical Sales: Includes CDs and vinyl records.
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Audio Streaming: Tracks the number of times a song is downloaded or streamed on platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube.
Top 5 UK Christmas No 1 Contenders
The UK Christmas Chart has a tendency toward streaks. The group LadBaby claimed victory five years in a row from 2018 to 2022, breaking the record set by the legendary Beatles. Last year, it was Wham! with their timeless hit Last Christmas that took the top spot, and bookmakers are confident in their chances of repeating that success this year.
The growing retro trend strongly supports Wham's chances. Since chart victories have shifted primarily to downloads rather than physical sales, beloved classics and remixes often climb to the top. For instance, in 2020, Mariah Carey nearly claimed the crown with a song released 26 years earlier.
This year, her iconic hit All I Want For Christmas Is You remains one of the top contenders, further proving the enduring appeal of nostalgic holiday favorites.
Another strong contender this year is Do They Know It's Christmas? by Band Aid, celebrating its 40th anniversary. Charity singles are traditionally popular during Christmas week, and covers of this Band Aid classic have topped the chart three times. However, this year, download numbers and radio play suggest its popularity is waning.
Of course, the public also has favorites among modern artists. Ed Sheeran, for example, claimed the top spot in 2017 with Perfect and joined forces three years ago with Elton John and record-breakers LadBaby for another win.
Bookmakers aren’t infallible. Take 2009, for example, when the odds heavily favored an X Factor contestant. Given that participants from the show had won seven times between 2005 and 2014, who would have expected anything else? Yet, against all odds, Rage Against the Machine stole the crown.
That said, let’s be honest—over the past 15 years, betting companies have had a prediction accuracy nearing 80%. This year’s favorite, Wham!, ticks all the right boxes: a retro hit experiencing a resurgence in popularity and a song that has inspired countless memes.
Simply put, we see no serious contenders for this timeless classic about George Michael’s plans to give his heart to someone special this Christmas.
The Most Popular TV Program at Christmas
This one is easier to measure: classic TV ratings combined with streaming statistics. Competing for the viewers' choice award are typically special episodes of popular series, iconic family films, and addresses from royals to the nation.
Top 5 TV Programmes
When it comes to TV programs, odds on the favorite are practically negligible—and it’s easy to see why.
Since the triumphant 2019 festive episode of Gavin and Stacey, fans have eagerly awaited more from the beloved characters of Barry and Billericay. The announcement of a new special has already created a social media frenzy, promising a reunion packed with iconic moments from Smithy, Nessa, and Uncle Bryn.
The cult show is produced by the BBC, and this network has dominated Christmas programming. For the past eight consecutive years, they have held onto the top spot. However, the main—if not the only—real competition for Gavin and Stacey this year comes from King Charles III, who also delivers his Christmas speech on BBC One.
Winners of the Past Five Years:
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2023 - King Charles III's Christmas Speech (5.9 million viewers on BBC One)
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2022 - King Charles III's Christmas Speech (8.1 million viewers on BBC One)
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2021 - Call the Midwife Christmas Special (5.7 million viewers on BBC One)
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2020 - Call the Midwife Christmas Special (5.4 million viewers on BBC One)
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2019 - Gavin & Stacey Christmas Special (11.5 million viewers on BBC One)
Since ascending the throne, public interest in the King’s Christmas address has skyrocketed. While bookmakers seem to assume this enthusiasm will wane in his third year, we believe the odds on the King's speech are overly generous and worth a closer look.
Even within the BBC, it’s recognized that in recent years, dramatic series have become the most popular type of programming. As David Bunker, Head of BBC Research Projects, states:
Whether viewers tune in to listen to the King’s speech before switching to entertainment or not, we have no doubt the top spot in the ratings will belong to either the first or second favorite according to the bookmakers.
And if you decide to place your bet on Gavin and Stacey, don’t be discouraged by the odds. After all, they’re still better than the Christmas tree in London!
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