Who Will Win 2024/25 League One: Favourites, Predictions, and Odds on Promotion

Let’s find out what will happen in the third tier of English football!

The new EFL League One season just kicked off on August, 9. Let's talk about the upcoming season, who has the best chances to be promoted to the Championship and what bookmakers think about it. 

EFL League One Winner Odds

According to bookmakers' predictions, the top three teams with the highest chances of winning and advancing to the Championship are Birmingham, Bolton, and Huddersfield Town. Birmingham is seen as the clear favourite, while Wrexham is only slightly behind the other two teams in the top three. The chances of the 5th and 6th favourites, Rotherham United and Charlton Athletic, are actually equal.

Below is the table with the main contenders to win the upcoming season.

Who will win the 2024/25 League 1 odds

Birmingham: Will the Blues Paint the Town Red?

Among the main favourites are traditionally the teams relegated from the top division. While such predictions are sometimes unfounded, Birmingham City really has the potential to return to the Championship. Last year, they missed the safety of 21st place by just one point. Overall, they showed solid performance, scoring more (50) and conceding fewer goals (65) than some teams in the Championship top 12.

The team’s relegation last season was influenced by frequent changes in management, including the involvement of the legendary footballer (though not as legendary a coach) Wayne Rooney. While the managers swapped not only with each other but also fluctuated between tactics like 5-3-2 and four defenders, the team also suffered an injury to its leader, Tyler Roberts. The role of this forward, who plays an average of 75 minutes per match and takes around 2.5 shots on goal, cannot be overstated. It's enough to mention that the team managed to collect only 10 points in his absence.

However, even without Tyler, Birmingham's attack cannot be called toothless. Jay Stansfield, Juninho Bacuna, and Jordan James combined for 27 goals. Although James left the team during the off-season, the squad still does not suffer from a lack of attacking options. 31 year old striker Alfie May who turned professional just 7 years ago is now considered as the main contender for the top goalscorer award with 7/2 odds.

As part of the grand project to rejuvenate the squad, 13 new players have been acquired, with an average age of just over 23 years. Only two of the newcomers are older than 30. Meanwhile, the two new arrivals who are expected to make the biggest impact — an Austrian defender Cristoph Klarer and a midfielder Willum Thór Willumsson from Iceland — are both under 25.

Bolton: The Trotters Prepare for the Final Push

Bolton is a team that came very close to promotion to the Championship in League 1 last season. After finishing in third place and a thrilling semi-final against Barnsley with an aggregate score of 5-4, they lost the final promotion spot to Oxford United. 

Last season, Bolton consistently earned points, particularly at their home ground, the Toughsheet Community Stadium (15 home wins with only 5 draws and 3 defeats). Their balanced performance across all lines is reflected in their average possession rate of 50% and their average goals scored — again, their home results were more impressive than away (2.17 compared to 1.61). However, perhaps the biggest contribution to the team's relatively successful performance came from their goalkeepers. Nathan Baxter was the primary goalkeeper, playing 33 matches and making 88 saves, with a save percentage of 74.4 (one of the best in the League) while Joel Coleman played 13 matches, making 33 saves with a save percentage of 67.3.

Thanks to Ian Evatt's efforts, the team retained its core group, led by versatile captain Ricardo Santos, who played a crucial role in maintaining possession and controlling the tempo of the game, ensuring the team's dominance in many matches. Having parted with only five players during the off-season, Bolton strengthened their squad with twice as many new arrivals. Among them is versatile young defender Luke Matheson, who made a notable impact in his first senior season with a key assist for Irish Bohemians. Not to mention Jordi Osei-Tutu and Jay Matete, who bring experience from the Bundesliga and Championship, respectively adding depth to both attack and defence of the team. While Dion Charles is among top 3 contenders to become the best goalscorer with 12/1 odds.

Huddersfield: Will the Terriers Come Back with a Trophy This Time?

Although Huddersfield had a disappointing season in the Championship, bookmakers still believe in Michael Duff's team. While their chances of winning may not be very high, the odds for finishing in the top 6 and returning to the Championship are the same as those for their two main rivals for the third promotion spot—Wrexham and Charlton Athletic.

Having suffered greatly from a lack of squad depth, the Terriers seem to have become accustomed to conceding four goals per match. Just recall the heavy defeats to Leeds and Swansea. 25 different players have started in at least three Championship games for Town over the campaign. Only ten of them have lasted the full 90 minutes in at least two-thirds of their appearances. It's still unclear how they plan to address this issue, as despite selling 11 players during the off-season, including Jack Rudoni, who moved to Coventry for a substantial €6 million, Huddersfield have only added five new players to their squad.

Of course, the team is hopeful about the new signing Anthony Evans, who has experience playing for England's youth teams, and the young talent Callum Marshall from West Ham's academy. But will they manage to deal with the team's mental and physical readiness issues? Last season, only Millwall squandered leads more frequently, and no one conceded more goals in the last 10 minutes of games than Huddersfield (18). Moreover, no other side has conceded as many second-half goals (48).

Much will depend on how the key players perform. Last season, the ageing central striker Jordan Rhodes managed 7 goals but was inconsistent, leading to his departure. However, two other key players, Josh Koroma and Nakhi Wells, both had a poor season, scoring a combined total of just 7 goals. If they bounce back, the team's chances will look much more promising.

EFL League 1 Promotion Odds

It is quite logical that, in terms of promotion to the Championship including the playoffs, the list of main contenders aligns with the "championship table." The only notable difference is that Wrexham has "caught up" with Huddersfield and Charlton Athletic that surpassed Rotherhan in terms of odds. 

League 1 promotion odds 2024/25

Wrexham: The Real Hollywood Story to be Continued?

It's not common for a club that has just been promoted from a lower division to be among the favourites. However, the Welsh side Wrexham, under the Hollywood patronage of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, is a special case. Given that the club, which has received substantial financial investments, managed to leap through several divisions in just a couple of years, there are high expectations for it to perform impressively in League 1 as well.

Wrexham has been remarkably strong at home, likely due to the exceptional support from their fans always filling the Racecourse Ground to capacity. 17 wins and only three losses. More importantly for an unbiased observer, Wrexham achieves these results with a highly attacking style of play, especially notable for a "newcomer" team. 

Of course, the main credit goes to striker Paul Mullin, who finished second in the top scorers' list with 24 goals, managed to score two hat-tricks, and was awarded Player of the Season. The unstoppable forward, who managed to make a cameo in a Hollywood blockbuster about Deadpool and Wolverine during the break between matches, is among the top contenders for the Golden Boot this season as well with 14/1 odds.

Saying goodbye to several older players, Phil Parkinson’s team retained key players, including Jordan Davis and Ben Tozer, and strengthened the squad with central midfielder Ollie Rathbone from their direct rivals Rotherham, as well as promising young goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo from Arsenal, who was acquired for free.

Rotherham United: The Millers Risk Making the Same Mistake Twice

After a catastrophic past season, Rotherham United was relegated from the Championship, but they remain among the main contenders for a return. Over the past six seasons, the team has regularly moved between League 1 and the Championship. So, even in the current circumstances, fans have reasons to hope for the best.

The last place in the league, an 18-point gap between the bottom and second-to-last positions, and a devastating goal difference of -52—all of these are consequences of a failed transfer policy that initially looked so promising. By doubling their previous record for transfer spending, the team acquired a whole array of high-profile names, including Cafu from Nottingham Forest, Fred Onyedinma from Luton Town, and former Middlesbrough defender Daniel Ayala. 

Most of the veteran newcomers couldn't keep up with the pace of the tournament. The team was plagued by injuries, and Ayala ended up playing in only 8 matches. The management dismissed Matt Taylor without having a replacement lined up and spent the remaining time agonising over finding a new one. 

Under the finally appointed new head coach Steve Evans, the team has offloaded some of the players acquired last season. However, it seems that lessons have not been learned. The focus remains on bringing in mature players with Championship experience. Out of 16 new signings, half are over 27 years old. The defence includes Joe Rafferty and Sean Raggett from Portsmouth, with a combined age of 60. Adding Reece James from Sheffield increases the total age of this defensive line to 90. While these players were all acquired for free, this trend is concerning. If the management, unhappy with the early results, once again embarks on another coaching gamble, Rotherham’s chances will become increasingly slim. Currently you can bet on them to finish in top 6 at 5/4

Ligue 1 Expectations

Among the leading group, the trio of Birmingham, Bolton, and Wrexham stand out. Rotherham appears to be the least likely candidate for promotion to the Championship, given their unstable management and questionable transfer policy. Charlton and Huddersfield remain dark horses. However, the success of the top three favourites depends on too many "ifs." Will Chris Davis's experience with giants like Brendan Rodgers and Ange Postecoglou pay off? Will Ryan Reynolds, suffering losses of three million pounds, cut the financial support to Wrexham? Will Dion Charles live up to Bolton's expectations? We'll find out very soon.