Who Will Win 2024/25 League One: Favourites, Predictions, and Odds on Promotion
Can Birmingham Celebrate Already?
The EFL League One season is approaching its final third. So far, one clear favorite and one surprise team are heading for direct promotion to the Championship: Birmingham and Wycombe. Meanwhile, Ryan Reynolds' hyped-up Wrexham are dropping points.
Who Will Win EFL League 1?
In our article, we’ll break down the current standings, provide predictions, and, of course, highlight the best betting options.
EFL League One Betting Odds
Just like last season, there’s an unexpected contender in the top two. Last time, it was Portsmouth—now, it’s Wycombe. One thing is clear: if the odds for promotion drop below 1/8, the team is practically guaranteed a place in the Championship. That was the case with Derby County, and as for Birmingham, they were favorites from the start. Now, the odds are so low that it’s hard to doubt their promotion.
League 1 Top Finish Odds
The top five promotion favorites look almost identical, with one exception—Huddersfield are rated higher than Stockport, likely due to their greater experience in the playoffs.
League 1 Promotion Odds
The final spot in the top six is unanimously given to Leyton Orient by the bookmakers. They recently put up a tremendous fight against Man City in the Cup and immediately followed it up with a crucial win over their direct playoff rivals—Wrexham. Notably, they managed to turn the game around despite a difficult start.
EFL League One Favorites
There’s still a lot left to be decided this season, but perhaps the biggest question already has an answer—Birmingham will secure promotion to the Championship, and they’ll likely do it as league winners.
Birmingham City
An absolutely dominant season. Just two losses, the last of which came all the way back in November. Chris Davies’ men have built a six-point lead over second place—and they still have two games in hand (!). One of the top three scoring teams, the most possession-oriented side, and the best defensive record in the league. They seem to have no weaknesses at all.
Birmingham City’s 2024/25 Season Stats
|
Metric |
Result (League Rank) |
|
Goals |
51 (2) |
|
Goals Conceded (the fewest) |
19 (1) |
|
Passes |
16541 (1) |
Right now, the Blues have an even stronger squad than they did last season in the Championship, thanks to their ambitious American owners.
They have added Alfie May, a striker who has scored at least 20 goals in League One in each of the last three seasons. He’s on pace to do it again, having netted 10 so far. However, their top scorer at the moment is Jay Stansfield, who leads the league with 16 goals—though Birmingham will be hoping he recovers from injury soon.
Birmingham’s odds are so low that to make any real profit, you’d need to combine them in an accumulator. One of the most interesting bets is their League One & EFL Trophy double, as they recently reached the Trophy final by beating Bradford City 2:1. Notably, in their last Wembley appearance back in 2011, Birmingham won—beating Arsenal 2:1.
Wycombe Wanderers
The biggest surprise of the season. Just a couple of months ago, they weren’t even in the top seven promotion contenders. Now, they sit second in the table and among the favorites with all bookmakers. They are unbeaten in six matches—and have even scored more goals than Birmingham.
Wycombe’s 2024/25 Season Stats
|
Metric |
Result (League Rank) |
|
Goals |
58 (1) |
|
Assists |
37 (1) |
|
Goal Difference |
27 (2) |
The team’s biggest star, Richard Kone, is tied for the top spot in the League One scoring charts with 16 goals. He gave fans a real scare in January after suffering a knee injury against Barnsley. However, he’s already back in training, as confirmed by new manager Mike Dodds:
Speaking of Dodds—many expected Matt Bloomfield’s mid-season departure to Luton Town to disrupt Wycombe’s momentum, but Dodds has taken charge seamlessly. The club also backed him in the January transfer window, breaking their transfer record to sign two Danish players: Anders Hagelskjær and Magnus Westergaard.
Wrexham
The Welsh side are firmly in the automatic promotion battle, but League One has exposed some stability issues. A disastrous stretch in January saw them fall out of the top two—three losses in five matches with just one win.
They managed to recover, winning four consecutive matches, but recently lost to one of their direct rivals—Leyton Orient (1:2). What’s concerning is that their last two defeats came at home, where Wrexham had previously been almost unbeatable.
Wrexham’s 2024/25 Season Stats
|
Metric |
Result (League Rank) |
|
Goals Conceded (the fewest) |
27 (2) |
|
Headed Goals |
13 (1) |
|
Shots |
293 (4) |
It seems like Phil Parkinson’s side decided to play defensively, but they are fourth in the league for shots. Ryann Barnett leads the league in assists across all teams with 8.
However, there is a suspicion that Wrexham are playing above their true capabilities. With an average xG of 1.35 per match, they are scoring 1.48 goals. It’s hard to see how they could improve further to leapfrog into second place.
Other Contenders
Realistically, there are about 8 teams with genuine chances to make the top six (and the playoff zone) and secure further promotion. Stockport, who were playing in the National League North just five years ago, are now storming League One, ranking fourth with 49 goals scored. However, the loss of Louie Barry around the New Year may leave a lasting impact. From December 4th to January 12th, they only won 2 out of 10 matches, suffering 6 defeats. Such poor runs typically prevent direct promotion to the Championship, but they are almost certain to be in the playoff mix.
Duff has a solid depth of talent to choose from, and anything short of making the playoffs would be considered a significant disappointment. The reality is, they won't be up against the same caliber of opposition as last season, and this group of players appears to be a class above most teams at this level.
Finally, Leyton, Charlton, and Bolton, who were considered among the main favorites before the season, are separated by just three points. Leyton is on the rise, and bookmakers are offering the lowest odds on them compared to the other two.
League One 2024/25 Prediction
Over the last 10 years, the leader at the halfway point of the season has made it to the Championship 2 out of 3 times. The gap and the quality of Birmingham leave little doubt that this trend will hold. The only concern is the injury to their top scorer, Jay Stansfield. However, at the moment, Birmingham has two squads capable of competing for promotion.
Wrexham are rated third for promotion, but they have a history of exceeding bookmakers' expectations. Luton Town and Norwich City (both in the 21st century) have shown that three consecutive promotions are a realistic goal. If Wrexham make it to the playoffs (which seems likely), they will be the favorites for the third Championship spot, given their unbeaten home record and cup-like mentality, which saw them reach the EFL Trophy semifinals.
Everton
Manchester Utd
Arsenal
West Ham
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Las Palmas
Barcelona
Ipswich
Tottenham
