Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the EFL Cup match.
Newcastle United's squad is valued at roughly €650 million, and here we have not just AFC Wimbledon, but the entirety of League Two worth significantly less than Newcastle’s players alone. AFC Wimbledon is valued at €4.15 million. What options are there in terms of predicting the winner?
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon once competed in the Premier League, but that historic club, founded in 1889, ceased to exist, becoming Milton Keynes Dons. The current AFC Wimbledon were created in 2002 by fans who opposed the relocation to another county. Two years ago, they were relegated from League One and almost dropped straight to non-league football, but managed to hold on to 21st place. This season, they are slowly climbing up: after six matches, the team sits fifth with 13 points, with a game in hand. Notably, they haven't conceded in their last two matches, earning four points. Incidentally, they thrashed MK Dons (3:0), which certainly boosted their morale. In the previous round of the League Cup, they knocked out Ipswich Town (2:2), winning on penalties. Of course, there was an element of luck, as the shot ratio speaks for itself (2-20).
Newcastle United
Newcastle United left a good impression in the first five rounds, deservedly occupying third place, but after losing to Fulham (1:3), they dropped to sixth. Newcastle conceded more than their opponents for the first time: 3 goals against 2.29 xG. Fulham play significantly better at home, but allowing 22 shots is still excessive. In the first half, Newcastle were ineffective: despite 61% possession, they generated just 0.11 xG and had 5 (2) shots. Among the positives, Harvey Barnes stood out, scoring a goal immediately after the break.
AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle United Prediction
Given that the hosts have not conceded in three consecutive matches and Newcastle United rarely scores more than two away from home, AFC Wimbledon, if they lose, will not be by a large margin.
