Who will win the 2026 World Cup: outright winner predictions
For the first time in history, the tournament features 48 national teams. With the first Quarter-Final played, the bracket has been reshaped further: France confirmed their status as favourites with a 2–0 win over Morocco, while earlier shocks saw Brazil knocked out (2–1 to Norway) and Portugal eliminated by Spain (0–1). As ever, the European sides now head the betting — chiefly France, Spain and England. Holders Argentina remain firmly in the picture, and there are, of course, other teams capable of springing a surprise.
The overall balance of power is now set by current form and how each side has navigated the bracket. You can follow the full FIFA World Cup Winner Odds market as it moves.
Bookmakers’ odds on the 2026 World Cup winner
Our tipsters' consensus pre-tournament was Spain. With the Quarter-Finals set, the consensus has shifted: France are now the value pick after a solid run through the knockout stage — 3–0 Sweden (R32), 1–0 Paraguay (R16) and 2–0 Morocco (QF) — making them the only side yet to concede in the knockout rounds, and Argentina are the in-form pick after Messi's eight-goal run to the Quarter-Finals — including the equaliser in Argentina's 3–2 R16 comeback against Egypt.
Our standout long-term play remains an each-way bet on Argentina at 7/2 to 9/2: defending champions, in-form talisman, and a Quarter-Final route that is trickier than it looks but still very much survivable. For value-hunters, a small punt on Norway at 14/1 to 17/1 also makes sense — they face England in the Quarter-Final on 11 July and have already shown they can beat anyone after eliminating Brazil.
Tournament winner odds
| Team |
Bet365 |
Ladbrokes
|
Sky Bet
|
AK Bets |
|---|
|
France
|
6/4
|
6/4
|
|
13/8
|
|
Argentina
|
9/2
|
4/1
|
|
9/2
|
|
England
|
9/2
|
9/2
|
|
5/1
|
|
Spain
|
9/2
|
4/1
|
|
4/1
|
|
Norway
|
16/1
|
14/1
|
|
17/1
|
|
Belgium
|
33/1
|
33/1
|
—
|
45/1
|
|
Switzerland
|
33/1
|
33/1
|
|
40/1
|
Compare prices across at least three UK sportsbooks before backing any selection — the difference between 14/1 and 17/1 on Norway, for example, is a meaningful swing in your potential return.
Spain — through to the Quarter-Finals
Luis de la Fuente's side did exactly what was expected in Group H — a clean sweep against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde — eased past Austria 3–0 in the Round of 32 in Los Angeles, then edged Portugal 1–0 in the Round of 16 to settle the Iberian derby. They remain top-tier outright contenders at 7/2, with Lamine Yamal and Pedri continuing to shape the headlines. Unsurprisingly, Yamal is also among the names to watch in the World Cup Best Player Odds for the Golden Ball.
Their Quarter-Final is against Belgium on Friday 10 July at 21:00 BST — a serious test after the Belgians' 4–1 demolition of the USA. Spain are around 8/13 to progress from the tie.
England, France and Argentina
Three of the four pre-tournament headline picks are still standing in the Quarter-Finals, but Brazil are out — a 2–1 defeat to Norway on Sunday, with the Norwegians scoring twice in the final ten minutes, sent the five-time champions home.
France were the most convincing side of the group stage, topping Group I as outright favourite — Mbappé (8 goals) and Dembélé (5 goals) lead the most dangerous attack at the tournament. France dispatched Sweden 3–0 in the R32, edged Paraguay 1–0 in the R16 and beat Morocco 2–0 in the Quarter-Final. They are now 11/8 to 6/4 across the major UK sportsbooks; they advance to the Semi-Finals as the only side yet to concede a goal in the knockout stage.
Argentina's headline is Lionel Messi: eight goals in the tournament so far, including the equaliser in Argentina's 3–2 R16 comeback against Egypt. That keeps him among the leading names in the World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds for the Golden Boot. The defending champions are 4/1 to 9/2 to retain the trophy and face Switzerland in the Quarter-Final on Sunday 12 July at 03:00 BST — a trickier tie than the outright odds imply, particularly after Argentina's slog to overturn Egypt.
England topped Group L without dropping a match, beat DR Congo 2–0 in the R32 in Atlanta, and came through a Round of 16 thriller 3–2 against Mexico despite briefly going down to ten men. Outright odds sit at 9/2 to 5/1, with Tuchel's defensive structure and Harry Kane's goals shaping up as the team's main assets. The Three Lions face Norway — the tournament's biggest upset story — in the Quarter-Final on Friday 10 July at 23:00 BST.
The Quarter-Final outsiders
The biggest story of the knockout stage so far is Norway 2–1 Brazil in the Round of 16 — a late brace that eliminated the five-time champions and reshaped the outright market. Ståle Solbakken's side came through the R32 against Ivory Coast, with Erling Haaland leading the line and Martin Ødegaard controlling the midfield. Outright odds have collapsed from triple figures pre-tournament to 14/1 to 17/1. Their Quarter-Final against England is on Friday 10 July at 23:00 BST.
Belgium and Switzerland round out the Quarter-Final field. Belgium demolished the USA 4–1 in the Round of 16 behind Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku; their Quarter-Final against Spain on Friday 10 July at 21:00 BST is the most anticipated tie in the top half of the bracket. Switzerland edged Colombia on penalties after a goalless 90 minutes — a tie their disciplined structure turned into a coin-flip — and they face Argentina on Sunday 12 July at 03:00 BST. Both are around 28/1 to 40/1 for the outright, and the real value on both sides sits in the match markets rather than the outright.
Morocco were the tournament’s headline outsider — and their run ended in the Quarter-Final, where France beat them 2–0 in Los Angeles. After eliminating the Netherlands on penalties in the R32 and dispatching Canada 3–0 in the R16, Morocco reached the last eight for the second consecutive World Cup, but could not find a way past Deschamps’ defence. Their outright odds have been withdrawn from the market.
World Cup 2026 Round of 16 results and Quarter-Final schedule
Below is a recap of every Round of 16 result. The Quarter-Final ties and kick-off times are covered in each team's section above. For the wider markets, you can also check the full World Cup Fixtures 2026 and the complete FIFA World Cup 2026 Teams list.
Round of 16 — full results (4–7 July 2026)
|
Date
|
Fixture
|
1
|
X
|
2
|
|---|
|
Sat 4 Jul
|
Morocco 3–0 Canada
|
5/6
|
9/4
|
4/1
|
|
Sat 4 Jul
|
France 1–0 Paraguay
|
1/5
|
11/2
|
16/1
|
|
Sun 5 Jul
|
Norway 2–1 Brazil
|
15/4
|
8/3
|
4/5
|
|
Mon 6 Jul
|
England 3–2 Mexico
|
6/4
|
2/1
|
2/1
|
|
Mon 6 Jul
|
Portugal 0–1 Spain
|
3/1
|
5/2
|
1/1
|
|
Tue 7 Jul
|
USA 1–4 Belgium
|
6/4
|
9/4
|
15/8
|
|
Tue 7 Jul
|
Argentina 3–2 Egypt
|
1/3
|
15/4
|
10/1
|
|
Tue 7 Jul
|
Switzerland 1–0 Colombia (pens)
|
5/2
|
15/8
|
11/8
|
World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final fixtures, kick-off times and venues
|
Date
|
Match
|
Kick-off (BST)
|
Stadium / City
|
|---|
|
9 July
|
France 2–0 Morocco
|
21:00
|
Los Angeles
|
|
10 July
|
Spain v Belgium
|
20:00
|
Miami
|
|
11 July
|
Norway v England
|
22:00
|
Foxborough
|
|
12 July
|
Argentina v Switzerland
|
02:00
|
Kansas City
|
Everything you need to know about the 2026 World Cup
The 2026 World Cup is the biggest football tournament in history. A record field and a fundamentally new format change the betting picture: more matches, more surprise results, and new markets in the knockout rounds.
The new format: 48 teams, 12 groups and a Round of 32
For the first time, the World Cup runs in an expanded format: 48 teams split into 12 groups of four. After the group stage, 32 sides reach the knockouts — the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams (ranked on points and goal difference).
In other words, teams whose chances would have been far slimmer under the old format can now progress, which opens up opportunities to back less obvious qualifiers. The knockouts also add a Round of 32, increasing the number of elimination matches and creating extra markets — including on penalty shoot-outs. In total the tournament will feature 104 matches, against 64 at Qatar 2022. For the full breakdown, see our
FIFA World Cup 2026 Format guide.
2026 World Cup stadiums: 16 venues across the USA, Canada and Mexico
The opening match takes place on 11 June at the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The final, on 19 July, is hosted by MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford (New Jersey) — the largest football stadium on America’s East Coast. Of the 16 venues, 11 are in the USA, 3 in Mexico and 2 in Canada. For more on each city, see our
World Cup Host Cities guide.
|
Stadium
|
City
|
Capacity
|
Key matches
|
|---|
|
AT&T Stadium
|
Arlington (Texas), USA
|
105,000
|
Semi-final
|
|
Estadio Azteca
|
Mexico City, Mexico
|
87,523
|
Opening match, 11 Jun
|
|
MetLife Stadium
|
East Rutherford, NJ, USA
|
82,500
|
Final, 19 Jul
|
|
Lincoln Financial Field
|
Philadelphia, USA
|
77,703
|
Group stage
|
|
Arrowhead Stadium
|
Kansas City, USA
|
76,416
|
Group stage
|
|
NRG Stadium
|
Houston, USA
|
72,220
|
Quarter-final
|
|
SoFi Stadium
|
Inglewood (Los Angeles), USA
|
70,000
|
Quarter-final
|
|
Lumen Field
|
Seattle, USA
|
69,000
|
Group stage
|
|
Levi’s Stadium
|
Santa Clara, USA
|
68,500
|
Group stage
|
|
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
|
Atlanta, USA
|
67,382
|
Round of 32
|
|
Gillette Stadium
|
Foxborough, USA
|
65,878
|
Group stage
|
|
Hard Rock Stadium
|
Miami, USA
|
62,236
|
Group stage, R32, QF, 3rd-place
|
|
BC Place
|
Vancouver, Canada
|
54,320
|
Group stage
|
|
Estadio BBVA
|
Monterrey, Mexico
|
53,500
|
Group stage
|
|
Estadio Akron
|
Guadalajara, Mexico
|
49,850
|
Group stage
|
|
BMO Field
|
Toronto, Canada
|
45,000
|
Group stage
|
When to watch the 2026 World Cup in UK time
Because of the time difference, UK fans will catch most matches from late afternoon through to the early hours (BST). Kick-offs span a wide window depending on the host city — the East Coast games start earliest in UK terms, the Pacific-coast games latest.
For the full rundown of TV channels, streaming and kick-off times, see our
Where to Watch the 2026 FIFA World Cup guide.
|
Time zone / host cities
|
Difference vs UK
|
Typical UK kick-off window
|
|---|
|
Eastern (EDT, UTC−4) — New York/East Rutherford, Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Boston
|
UK 5 hours ahead
|
≈17:00–02:00 BST
|
|
Central US (CDT, UTC−5) — Dallas/Arlington, Houston, Kansas City
|
UK 6 hours ahead
|
≈18:00–03:00 BST
|
|
Central Mexico (CST, UTC−6, no DST) — Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey
|
UK 7 hours ahead
|
≈19:00–04:00 BST
|
|
Pacific (PDT, UTC−7) — Los Angeles/Inglewood, Seattle, Vancouver, Santa Clara
|
UK 8 hours ahead
|
≈20:00–05:00 BST
|
If you plan to bet In-Play on the Pacific-coast matches (kicking off in the small hours, BST), make sure your bookmaker’s app is running smoothly before kick-off.
Frequently asked questions about 2026 World Cup tips and betting
Daily. New tips appear as matches are confirmed — usually 1–2 days before kick-off. On matchday a final preview may follow, taking the starting line-ups and the latest team news into account.
A tip is an expert’s conclusion on a specific match, with a clear betting recommendation. A trend is a statistical pattern in a team’s results (for example, “scored in 8 of the last 10 games”). A trend helps justify a tip, but it is not a recommendation in itself.
Both. Experts produce Pre-match tips for specific games as well as outright analysis covering tournament favourites, group winners and finalists. The latter tend to be published closer to the start.
Yes, most tips are available without registration. A few features — such as alerts when a particular expert posts a new tip — open up after a free sign-up.
Yes. Alongside single tips, experts periodically publish accumulators — combinations of several selections from one round. An accumulator gives a higher overall price, but the risk is greater: a single wrong leg loses the whole bet.
Look at the bookmaker’s margin: the lower it is, the closer the odds are to the true probability. Compare prices across several licensed bookmakers — if one operator’s odds are noticeably higher, that may be a value price. Our bookmaker odds comparison is available on Legalbet.
In terms of methodology, no — but in difficulty, yes. In the knockouts, the match must produce a winner, although it may still be level after 90 minutes. and every team’s motivation is at its peak. Experts specify which outcome the tip covers: a win in normal time or an alternative market.
Strike rate is the percentage of tips in which the expert called the outcome correctly. It matters, but is not enough by itself:a 60% strike rate at average odds of 3/10 can return less than a 50% strike rate at 11/10. Look at ROI — it shows the real return over the long run.
Other World Cup 2026 content and updates
Additional World Cup 2026 predictions, match previews, and outright analysis will be published here as the tournament approaches. Check back from April 2026 for squad-confirmed tips with updated injury reports and bookmaker price movements across all markets.
What Will England’s Squad Look Like for the 2026 World Cup?
Results of the 2026 World Cup Draw
2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers in Europe: Trends and Predictions
