Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
To secure victories, Blackburn Rovers need to return to their home ground. Only at Ewood Park are the team capable of achieving this, at least for now. Swansea City do not have such a dependency and can win on the road. Will the visitors manage to take points?
Blackburn Rovers
Blackburn Rovers have dropped out of the playoff zone after suffering two consecutive defeats, but those were away games. Ideally, they should win against Swansea City and climb back into the coveted top six. They're hopeful that all their competitors, most of whom are playing away in the 10th round, will simultaneously falter. Winning at home isn't a given, though; they scored the winning goal against Oxford United in the third round only in the 83rd minute. The problem with conversion is growing: in their four recent matches, Blackburn Rovers have netted just three goals, two of which were at home. In that home game against Queens Park Rangers, they needed 19 shots and 12 on target for those two goals.
Swansea City
Things with Swansea City are straightforward. In the Championship, this club is the toughest to score against, with opponents undershooting by nearly ten goals (6 conceded against an xGA of 15.83). Most of this undershoot happens in away matches, although the team have played one fewer away match: -6.86 xGADiff. Blackburn Rovers will try to correct this—at Ewood Park, they have scored 4.05 goals more than their expected xG.
Blackburn Rovers vs Swansea City Prediction
In their six recent encounters, no more than three goals have been scored, and both teams have lost once. Remember, Swansea are generally very resilient. We believe that a total under 3.5 will come into play again, combined with a result where the hosts do not lose.
