Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the EFL Cup match.
For most living fans of these clubs, this encounter will be new. Only a few remember their solitary match in early 1948, when Chelsea won 5:0 in the FA Cup.
Chelsea
Chelsea currently lead in attacking productivity. They average 2.2 goals per game, but their 11 goals required only 8.03 xG. This advantage was primarily created by their exceptional performance against Wolverhampton, but even in their weekend match against West Ham United (3:0), they scored three goals with just 2.19 xG and 12 (5) shots. West Ham had more attempts—15 (7)—and created chances worth almost a goal (0.85 xG), but they failed to convert. Against Barrow, different players will undoubtedly feature, but their average level is so high that they should win comfortably.
Barrow
For their level, Barrow are performing well—leading League Two after seven rounds with 16 points. Only Carlisle United managed to beat them in the second round (1:0). A model of how the team performs against higher-class opposition can be seen in their second-round League Cup match against Derby County, a mid-table Championship side. Barrow played at home, drawing 0:0 in regular time before winning in the penalty shootout. Despite Derby making several rotations with some key players resting, Barrow still managed 12 shots and created just 0.46 xG. Derby produced a similar effort—11 shots and an xG of 0.70.
Chelsea vs Barrow Prediction
It's clear there won't be an upset. Chelsea players have no right to embarrass themselves in front of their fans. They will show their best against Barrow. There's no point in betting on a win for them, so we'll focus on their scoring potential.
