Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the World Cup qualifying match.
The match in Paris is a test of resilience for Iceland after their 5:0 opening success against Azerbaijan, and an opportunity for France to consolidate top spot after a comfortable 2:0 against Ukraine. France are stronger individually and possess greater squad depth, while the visitors bring discipline and diligent off-the-ball work.
France
France’s display against Ukraine offered both positives and warning signs: the opponents created chances, which is an important signal for the back line. Even so, the trends are encouraging: in eight of their last 10 matches they have scored two or more goals, and they have kept a clean sheet in three of their past four. At home the statistics are solid, with a 3-1-1 (W-D-L) over the last five home games. Control of the centre and quick transitions are likely to be the key to unlocking a compact defence. Another factor is set pieces: France are strong in the air on set pieces.
Iceland
The opening rout of Azerbaijan will have boosted Iceland’s confidence, but the level of resistance in Paris will be different. Away from home, Iceland are inconsistent: they have lost three of their previous four away matches, and against top opposition they often cede possession and allow attempts from dangerous areas. The head-to-head record against France does not favour them: since 2012 there have been four defeats and one draw.
France vs Iceland Prediction
The hosts’ class and depth, plus the Paris factor, should allow France to control the game. Iceland are likely to sit in a low block, but over 90 minutes the hosts should find their rhythm and convert their chances. We would also note that Iceland have scored in eight of their last 10 away matches, so we will take the combo.
