Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Serie A match.
Lazio currently sit seventh in the standings but remain firmly in contention for UEFA Champions League qualification. The gap to fourth-placed Bologna is only four points, and with a game in hand against Genoa, the team from Rome will be under considerable pressure to claim all three points.
Genoa
Genoa's main problem lies in the attacking third. Patrick Vieira has struggled to produce any consistent threat going forward, as reflected in the squad’s poor expected goals statistics—just 0.27 xG against Juventus (0:1) and 0.14 xG against Hellas Verona. Even in their 2:1 win over relegation contenders Lecce, Genoa managed only two shots on target. Defensively, they have not looked solid either. Although clean sheets were recorded against Udinese and Hellas Verona, those opponents still registered 0.87 xG and 1.32 xG respectively.
Lazio
Lazio, by contrast, arrive on a high following a dramatic penalty shootout victory over Bodø/Glimt (3:2), booking their place in the UEFA Europa League semi-finals. Fortunately for Marco Baroni, his team were afforded six full days of rest—a recovery period that should see them return to full fitness. The timing is ideal, with Lazio appearing to rediscover their rhythm. Their leading scorer, Taty Castellanos, has returned from injury and found the net in just his second game back.
Genoa vs Lazio Prediction
Lazio enter the fixture buoyed by their European triumph and, most importantly, in excellent physical shape. With all three points crucial, it’s hard to see one of the division’s lowest-scoring sides posing a genuine threat.
