Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Neither Heidenheim nor Elversberg have previously featured in the Bundesliga promotion/relegation play-offs. In contrast to the French system, where the lower-ranked side hosts the first leg, in Germany tradition dictates that the more established club plays at home first.
Heidenheim
Heidenheim have had a remarkable journey. In their maiden Bundesliga campaign, having reached the top division for the first time in their history, the team secured European qualification by finishing eighth. However, their involvement in the UEFA Europa Conference League up until February took its toll and saw them slide into the lower reaches of the Bundesliga standings. After briefly topping the standings following matchday two, Heidenheim fell to 16th by matchday 13 — and remained in the relegation zone for most of the season. They only managed to climb out temporarily in January, and only for a single round.
Elversberg
Elversberg are on a similarly meteoric rise to that of Heidenheim a few years ago, albeit even quicker. As recently as the 2021/22 season, they were playing regional amateur football in Germany's fourth tier. After securing immediate promotion from the 3. Liga, they now stand on the cusp of the Bundesliga just two years later. Elversberg emerged as genuine promotion candidates only after matchday 29, following an eight-match unbeaten streak to end the season — a run that included five victories.
Heidenheim vs Elversberg Prediction
That said, the quality of opposition faced by each club is notably different. In each of the past two seasons, the first legs of the play-offs ended in decisive 3:0 wins. This time, we see 1. Heidenheim as favourites. Their exposure to European football should prove valuable. However, we’re not making a specific goal margin prediction — a straightforward win should be enough. That would represent a solid foundation going into the second leg.
