Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the World Cup qualifying match.
The start of qualifying has been underwhelming for Italy — a 0:3 defeat in Norway was followed by a laboured 2:0 win over Moldova. Italy now play at home against the clear outsiders in the group, and it is important to take maximum points to re-enter the race for top spot. Estonia are not in contention to qualify, but they have already produced a surprise 3:2 win over Moldova.
Italy
Italy are going through a transitional phase, and the results are not convincing. Defeats to France (1:3), Germany (1:2) and Norway (0:3) have alternated with comfortable wins over weaker opponents. Against Moldova, Italy attempted 28 shots, but allowed the opponents 18 efforts in reply. Defensive issues remain, yet the upcoming opponents are relatively blunt in attack.
Estonia
Estonia have already played four matches and collected three points thanks to the victory in Chisinau. In the other fixtures there were defeats to Israel (1:2, 1:3) and Norway (0:1). In attack the team can trouble fellow strugglers, but their defence has regular lapses, with seven goals conceded across four rounds. Against top-level opponents Estonia are second-best in both pace and individual quality.
Italy vs Estonia Prediction
Given Italy’s motivation and the gap in player quality, the hosts should win with something to spare. Italy create a high number of chances, while Estonia are error-prone at the back under sustained pressure. However, only two of Italy’s last 19 matches have seen Total Over 4.5 Goals, and it has never happened against Estonia.
