Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the 2026 World Cup Qualification match.
Neither Lithuania nor Finland opened their World Cup qualifying campaigns with much attacking flair, and Monday’s clash in Kaunas is unlikely to break that pattern. Both sides are tactically conservative, preferring to sit back and strike on the counter — a dynamic that rarely produces high-scoring affairs.
Lithuania
Lithuania suffered a narrow 0:1 defeat to Poland on Friday, but considering the disparity in quality, that result could be seen as respectable. The Poles created 1.73 xG and racked up 24 shots, underlining how Lithuania sat deep and absorbed pressure. That match marked the Lithuanians’ eighth straight defeat, three of which were goalless on their end. They are likely to remain compact at home, relying on opponents to waste chances.
Finland
Finland, meanwhile, did just enough to beat Malta (1:0) in their group opener. That result, while expected, still exposed lingering issues in attack. Despite facing one of Europe’s weakest sides, Finland actually allowed more shots on target (5–6) than they managed. After a disastrous six-loss campaign in Nations League B, their priority was simply to get back to winning ways. Joel Pohjanpalo started up front, while veteran Teemu Pukki came on late and had no impact.
Lithuania vs Finland Prediction
A head-to-head clash between two defensively-minded teams is unlikely to produce a thrilling attacking spectacle. Lithuania and Finland will score no more than two goals combined – even a couple of accurate strikes would be a surprise.
