Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Mainz 05 have started the season slowly, taking only one point from two matchdays, yet they have reached the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage. That means the squad faces fixture congestion, so rotation and workload management will be key. RB Leipzig, by contrast, have no European football and can focus entirely on the Bundesliga.
Mainz 05
Mainz 05 have not impressed with results so far: a last-minute defeat to Köln (0:1) and a draw with VfL Wolfsburg (1:1) have left the club towards the bottom of the standings. However, the team is not without threat — across two matchdays they generated 3.5 xG but scored only once. The hosts have already made their mark in Europe and reached the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage by beating Rosenborg BK in qualifying (1:2, 4:1). Mainz also have an excellent recent head-to-head record against RB Leipzig, with only one defeat in the last six meetings.
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig opened with a heavy defeat in Munich (0:6), but they responded with a home win over Heidenheim (2:0), in which they produced 2.22 xG. After the departures of Xavi Simons, Benjamin Šeško and Loïs Openda, the attack has weakened. The replacements are Yan Diomande, Rômulo Cardoso и Conrad Harder, but these are players of lesser calibre, all signed with the future in mind. Away matches have been a problem for some time, with only one win in their last 11 Bundesliga away fixtures.
Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig Prediction
At home, Mainz 05 will deny space in dangerous areas and close the gaps between the lines, while RB Leipzig are still adjusting after losing key players. The hosts have not looked that forlorn at the start and they are capable of taking points off the visitors, who have been weakened by the departure of their stars.
