Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Jonathan Burkardt’s return from injury immediately paid dividends for Mainz, as the 24-year-old striker registered a goal and an assist in a crucial victory over Heidenheim (2:0). St. Pauli, well aware of Mainz’s reliance on their attacking talisman, will ensure he has little time on the ball this Saturday.
Mainz
Following their win over struggling Heidenheim, Mainz climbed back into the European spots, overtaking Stuttgart in the race for sixth place. However, their home scoring record remains unconvincing—only 14 goals in 11 matches, a tally bettered by all but four Bundesliga teams. Defensively, Mainz have been riding their luck, as their xGA stands at 31.53, yet they have conceded just 24 times—third-best in the league.
St. Pauli
In their first season back in the top flight, St. Pauli have taken a pragmatic approach, focusing on defensive solidity rather than attacking flair. Their xG of 26.68 is the third-lowest in the division, and they, along with Bochum, remain the only teams yet to score 20 league goals. St. Pauli have been involved in low-scoring affairs, with just one of their last five matches going over 2.5 goals. They rank as the Bundesliga’s least entertaining team in terms of goal action.
Mainz vs St. Pauli Prediction
Mainz are currently on a run of four consecutive matches finishing under 2.5 goals, and St. Pauli’s defensive approach will make this another cagey contest. With Jonathan Burkardt tightly marked and limited attacking alternatives for Mainz, chances will be at a premium.
